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The situation in the oil market is more like a roller-coaster ride. Two days ago, the quotes went down sharply after the statement of St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. Yesterday, they managed to recoup early losses, driven by the news on the epidemiological situation in China.
According to the latest reports, the virus wave appears to have subsided. This heightens investor expectations that Beijing will ease the remaining restrictions at a more rapid pace, which will eventually lead to a gradual recovery in energy consumption in China, the world's largest oil importer. The most important thing is that investors are looking for trading ideas that could contribute to a sustainable movement, up or down. However, the existing factors are mixed. Therefore, the market will most likely continue to seesaw for some time.
According to the trading chart, Brent crude oil futures completed their correction around the level of $84. As a result, the volume of short positions decreased, thus allowing the asset to begin a gradual recovery. To extend gains, the quote needs to consolidate above the 88 mark at least on the four-hour chart. Otherwise, another price rebound may occur.
Likewise, gold won back its early losses. Moreover, it managed to rise above $1,925 per troy ounce, hitting a new local high. If the price stays firm above the 1,930 mark, it will most likely head towards the psychological level of 2,000.
Increased demand for the yellow metal can also be attributed to the news from China. Given that the economy gradually emerges from prolonged isolation under tough restrictions, consumer activity is expected to grow. In order to ensure that supply meets growing demand, China needs both commodity and financial reserves. However, the country has been gradually reducing its dollar assets in recent years, so it needs to increase financial reserves in a form other than the US currency. At the moment, gold is best suited for this role.
India and Russia are actively pursuing this policy along with China. Notably, these countries are not only among the biggest economies in the world but also have the largest reserves. Higher demand from these countries has already led to a noticeable rise in gold prices. Given that they continue to increase their gold reserves, the outlook for the yellow metal looks extremely rosy.
Speaking of the Russian currency, the US dollar’s attempts to rise above 69 rubles failed, and the market returned to the range of 68 to 69 rubles per dollar. In general, the situation remains unchanged. Thus, it can be assumed that the ruble will continue drifting in a relatively tight range. At the same time, one should bear in mind that last year, the Russian currency posted modest gains in similar circumstances. That is, there is a likelihood that the market range may well shift to the marks of 67-68 rubles per dollar next week.
00:00 Introduction
00:24 Oil Market Situation
01:03 Brent
01:30 Gold
01:51 Increased demand for gold
02:31 Club of Three
03:00 USD/RUB
03:38 Conclusion
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Calendario y reseñas
Trader’s calendar on March 20-22: What shapes USD more: banking crisis or Federal Reserve?
Trader’s calendar on March 16-17: USD losing bullish momentum?
Trader’s calendar on March 9-10: What can be more serious than Fed Chair’s testimony?
Trader’s calendar on March 6-8:Global central banks still considering future monetary policy changes
Trader’s calendar on March 2-3: US economy losing momentum, but USD extending its growth.
Trader’s calendar on February 27-March 1: China leads, US heads for recession.
Elección del editor
The United Arab Emirates seem to be a land where nothing is impossible with its capital city Abu Dhabi being a place of dreamlike fantasies. Glassy skyscrapers and futuristic buildings in the midst of Arabian dessert boggle imagination. And it is hard to believe that half a century back this one of the world’s richest cities called "Arabian Manhattan" did not even know about electricity and water pipe. Today, firmly high oil price which has become a component of UAE economic blossom can become a recipe for success of every trader. Abu Dhabi which is one of the major financial centers in the world holds annual prestigious exhibitions and conferences. In 2011 at the annual event «Forex&Investment Summit» the world-wide known broker InstaForex picked up the "Best Retail Forex Broker" award.
Artur Uryupin, analyst at InstaForex: "A tendency for traders to sit in front of the monitor is disease of all newcomers". (ShowFx World Conference in Yekaterinburg)
Trader’s calendar on March 20-22: What shapes USD more: banking crisis or Federal Reserve?
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