Trading plan 04/13/2018

The general picture: The markets are waiting for the US attack on Syria.

The focus is on the prospect of a US strike against Syria. The second main topic - trade tension between U.S. President Donald Trump and China - will come to the fore after the decision on Syria. The rest of the news so far are on the sidelines. (In the background, the decision of the ECB is approaching on April 26).

Syria and the US: it seems that the probability of a strike is high. Allies - Britain and France - are ready to support the United States, plus Saudi Arabia.

At the same time, the main risks for the US: a chance of getting a military retaliatory strike against its forces in Syria - this will raise the question of a large-scale US war against Damascus - and this is not in the plans of the US Armed Forces - whatever one may say.

The second risk - an attack can be too unsuccessful - as with the result an attack a year ago - this may cause the U.S. to lose some face.

In general, there is a chance that there will be no impact at all.

We believe that in any case - with the cancellation of the attack- or after it - there is more chance of seeing a decline in the dollar.

GBPUSD: Buy on strong kickbacks up to 1.4100.

With a break below 1.4100, buy at around 1.3700.