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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of GBP/USD on July 22 The forecast for the "Regression Channels". The fate of Britain is in the hands of Queen Elizabeth II?
time 22.07.2019 07:11 AM
time Relevance up to, 23.07.2019 07:11 AM

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 36.9803

The British currency returned to the moving average line, having failed to update the previous local maximum, and tends to resume the downward trend again. We remind you that tomorrow, it will be known who won the elections in the UK, Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt. Meanwhile, we have already written that the British Parliament hedged in case Johnson wins and wants to suspend the work of Parliament to carry out Brexit "without a deal" without the participation of Parliament. Since there is no consensus among parliamentarians on the question "how to leave the EU?" (and this is three years after the decision on the "divorce" was made), then to address this issue, we can connect Elizabeth II, who for 67 years of her reign has never solved political issues. Members of the Conservative Party fear that Boris Johnson will nevertheless turn Brexit "without a deal", which will be destructive to the country's economy, so they want to give the Queen the right to make political decisions. Thus, interested Tories will appeal to the Queen with a request to discuss with the European Union another Brexit deferment, which Brussels is ready to provide. This unprecedented case can put a fat cross on Boris Johnson's desires to leave the EU on October 31. By the way, Johnson is not yet the Prime Minister of Great Britain. Technically, the pound threatens to go below the moving again. It is impossible to predict what the market reaction will be to the election results, therefore, greater caution is recommended today and tomorrow, as it is possible to increase volatility and sharp price reversals.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2482

S2 – 1.2451

S3 – 1.2421

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2512

R2 – 1.2543

R3 – 1.2573

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has adjusted to the moving average. Thus, now, it is recommended to wait for the rebound from the moving and buy the pair again, but in very small lots, since both channels are directed downwards, with the goals of 1.2543 and 1.2573.

It will be possible to sell the pound/dollar pair with the goals of 1.2451 and 1.2421 not earlier than fixing the price below the moving average line. In this case, the bears will take the initiative again.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Paolo Greco,
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