30.11.202109:08 Forex Analysis & Reviews: US stock market holds its decline; correction not over yet, November 30

Exchange Rates 30.11.2021 analysis

The US stock market performed an upward rebound. However, the correction is not over yet. Oil prices moved down again.

On Monday, the main US stock indices managed to gain momentum after a steep fall on Friday. The Dow added 0.7%, the NASDAQ Composite rose by 1.9%, and the S&P 500 grew by 1.3%.

Oil fell by 2% on Tuesday morning. Brent crude is trading at $72. Market participants are hesitant to open long positions after oil prices declined by $10 on Friday. The US authorities have confirmed that they are ready to release oil from its strategic reserves if it is necessary to ease rising oil prices.

OPEC's meetings are likely to be held next Wednesday and Thursday. Analysts believe that OPEC plans to stick to its production plan. If this scenario comes true, oil prices may jump higher in December.

The fourth wave of the coronavirus is not ebbing away. In the US, the number of new cases totaled 70,000 at the beginning of the week. As a result, the US recorded the highest number of cases. In Europe, Germany and Britain registered 42,000 new cases yesterday. As for the new coronavirus strain, omicron, there is no data from South Africa yet. Vaccine manufacturers are studying the effectiveness of existing vaccines against the new variant.

The S&P 500 is trading at 4,655. It is likely to remain in the range of 4,620 - 4,680.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas dropped slightly to 11.8 in November from a three-month high of 14.6 in October. PMI indexes for November will be released on Wednesday and Friday.

The US stock market rebounded yesterday, halting its prolonged decline. However, the correction is not complete. In the coming days, the US stock indices may decrease again. Its further trajectory depends on the decision of large investment funds. If they keep buying back shares, pushing indices to new highs after a strong fall on Friday, so the market may resume its upward movement. The situation will clarify when stock indices approach the latest highs.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said that anyone over age 18 should get a COVID-19 booster shot against the new omicron strain.

Rising inflation in the US remains the main problem and the main risk for the Fed, the economy, and the stock market. The Federal Trade Commission has requested information from Walmart and Amazon about shortages and problems in supply chains in order to understand the mechanism of price growth.

The US dollar index is trading at 96.06. It is likely to stay in the range of 95.80 - 96.30. Unlike the stock market, the US dollar did not lose momentum after falling on Friday. We will probably see a prolonged consolidation and possibly a new decline. In addition, discussions in Congress about another increase in the US debt limit should begin in mid-December.

The USD/CAD pair is trading at 1.2780. It is likely to remain in the range of 1.2720 - 1.2830. The dollar rose versus the Canadian dollar again. The pair is trading at Friday's highs due to a new decline in oil prices.

Conclusion. In general, the stock market managed to halt its drop after a sharp decrease on Friday. However, large funds may decide to close long positions near the yearly highs, triggering a new wave of sell-off.

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