Hi everyone! It’s me, Kate Stikhina. You are watching a recap of the Asian session. US stocks resumed growth amid improved risk sentiment. Australian and Japanese sharers followed suit.
As for the main currencies, yesterday we witnessed an unusual correlation between the US dollar and stock indices. Let's discuss the main highlights of the Asian session!
In the Asian stock markets, the main losers of yesterday - shares of tech firms and banks - scored the biggest gains. However, they advanced only amid increased optimism on Wall Street. The US stock indices climbed despite high inflation data.
The CPI, which is closely monitored by the Fed, rose by half a percent in February, beating forecasts and the January figure of 0.4%. It means that inflation is still growing. However, analysts expect the central bank to take a more cautious approach to rates.
Although the Fed is supposed to stick to aggressive monetary policy to restore price stability, it might also take a pause. Jerome Powell’s statements made last week are no longer relevant.
Back then, the Fed Chair was rather hawkish, hinting at sharper rate hikes. However, at that time, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank had not occurred yet. The situation has changed significantly. The Fed will have to be extremely careful when making policy decisions.
However, the prompt intervention of the government made investors believe that the worst part of the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank was over. The US authorities assured speculators that they would not allow the situation to worsen as it was in 2008. Such remarks improved sentiment and spurred an increase in stocks.
Nevertheless, the number of traders betting on a more aggressive rate hike again exceeds those who are anticipating a 25 basis point rate hike. Yesterday, there was an almost equal number of hawks and doves. As of today, investors are pricing in an 82% chance of a 50 basis point rate increase.
Given the current situation, a jump in the greenback looks quite predictable. However, there is one problem. Stock futures also climbed in the Asian session on Wednesday. So, the usual patterns still don't work. The US dollar index traded mixed versus its main rivals.

It touched the support level of 103.4 and dropped to a low of February 7-8. Shortly after, the greenback managed to recover to 103.7, moving to the resistance level of 103.8.

What factors impact the US currency? Now, it is appreciating amid growing Treasuries. Yet, the euro may exert pressure on the US dollar.

The ECB meeting will be held tomorrow. Hence, the US dollar index may test 103 or decline lower if the ECB raises the key rate by 50 basis points. In any case, volatility persists in markets. The chart of the US currency only confirms this.
Whilst the euro could advance against the US dollar amid the ECB’s hawkish move, the yen lacks such a chance. The Bank of Japan awaits a leadership transition in April. However, the new governor will hardly abandon an ultra-loose monetary policy in the near future.
The regulator needs to keep the yield of government bonds at zero. So, the yen is very sensitive to the movement of US treasuries. On Wednesday morning, they edged higher. As a result, the dollar/yen pair advanced again. However, before that, the Japanese currency was able to settle at 133.
Trading was rather choppy. In the Asian session, the pair jumped to 134.9. It was moving in the intraday range of 134.0–135.1, gradually rising.
The Aussie managed to resume a short-term rally, approaching a high of 0.6711. However, it retreated a bit later due to a stronger US dollar. In the Asian trade, the AUD/USD pair was moving in the channel of 0.6670-0.6713.
Nevertheless, the Aussie may again test the key resistance level of 0.6700 if the risk appetite persists. A further trajectory of the AUD/USD pair will depend on Australia's employment data, which is on tap on Thursday.
The New Zealand dollar traded in a wide range. At first, it rebounded sharply from a 4-month low and rose to 0.6265. Shortly after, the kiwi rolled back, entering the range of 0.6205-0.6266.

00:00 Introduction
00:26 Asian equity market
01:02 CME FedWatch on the FOMC rate
02:25 USDX
03:29 USD/JPY
04:26 AUD/USD
04:59 NZD/USD
05:42 Conclusion

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