Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair should be looking to carve a lower top around 1.1720/40 levels and for this to hold true, 1.1850 resistance should hold. According to the wave labels shown above, a higher degree wave (4) looks to have terminated at 1.1850 levels and if this holds well, we must see lower tops and lower bottoms going forward, as wave (5) progresses. On the other hand, if a more complex wave (4) is to form, prices may rise through 1.2000/50 levels before turning lower again. At this point in time, a high probability is to watch out for a bearish reversal around 1.1720/40 levels, shown by the Fibonacci ratios as well. Please note that until prices stay below 1.1850 levels, we assume that wave (5) should progress lower and wave 2 is being worked upon right now.

Trading plan:

Look to sell around 1.1720/40, stop at 1.1851, target 1.1300 and 1.1200

Fundamental outlook:

There are no major fundamental events lined up for the day.

Good luck!