EUR/USD, GBP/USD
On Thursday, investors compared the trade balances of the eurozone and the US, and, of course, the comparison was in favor of the eurozone. The trade balance data of the euro area for December published yesterday showed an increase from 22.0 billion euros to 23.8 billion euros. Last week, trade data in the US showed a widening from -50.4 billion to -53.1 billion dollars. The volume of industrial production in the U.S. in January fell by 0.1% against the expected growth of 0.2%. Capacity utilization dropped to 77.5%, and the previous estimate was reduced from 77.9% to 77.7%. The December growth in industrial production was revised downward from 0.9% to 0.4%. The index of business activity in the housing market from NAHB is expected to remain at 72 points. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New York for the current month fell from 17.7 to 13.1. In the second half of the American session, the markets managed to overcome the negative sentiment, and as a result, the S&P 500 closed the day with growth of 1.21%. Producer price indices still showed growth - the core PPI for January added 0.4% against the expectation of 0.2%, the total PPI increased by the expected 0.4%. The euro added 56 points, the pound sterling 102 points.
Today, the eurozone will be the wholesale price index in Germany for January, the forecast of 0.2% against -0.3% in December. In the UK at 8:30 London time, retail sales in January will be released, with an expected 0.5% increase against a decline of 1.5% in December. The British pound may accelerate its increase.
In the US, the number of new homes built over the past month is expected to increase from 1.19 million to 1.23 million. The number of issued permits for the construction of new homes may drop slightly from 1.30 million to 1.29 million. US import prices are expected to increase by 0.6%. Consumer confidence from the University of Michigan for February is projected by a slight decrease to 95.4 from 95.7.
As a result, we are looking forward to the growth of the euro to 1.2640, the pound's rise to 1.4270.
AUD/USD
Australian investors were optimistic about the employment data, even with some rough edges. In January, 16, 000 jobs were created against the forecast of 15.3 thousand. The unemployment rate remained at 5.5% with a decrease in the proportion of economically active population from 65.7% to 65.6%. There was an upswing in related markets. Copper shows the largest weekly growth since November 2016, by 6.4%. Yesterday, oil added 1.63% due to the statement of Saudi Arabia reaffirming its commitment to continue reducing production and reducing stocks in the US. Iron ore adds 0.12% per day. This morning, in the House of Representatives, the head of the RBA Philip Lowe, he optimistically assessed the development of inflation, rising real estate prices and said that the next step of the Central Bank will be ("more likely") rate increase.
In China, the celebration of the New Year continues. The Japanese stock index Nikkei 225 is growing by 1.75% and the Australian S&P/ASX 200 by 0.05%. According to the US today is expected post an in increase in housing starts and the weakening of the dollar. In this situation, we are looking forward to the growth of the Australian currency to 0.8070.
