Eurozone

Macroeconomic indicators published this week were clearly not favorable for the bulls. Retail sales in Germany in February were significantly worse than expected, falling to 1.3% y/y versus 2.2% a month earlier, growth in business activity in the manufacturing sector is slowing in both Germany and the eurozone as a whole.

Preliminary data on consumer inflation in March also turned out to be worse than expected, the basic index showed an increase of 1%, although it was forecasted to be +1.1%. According to the ECB, the ratio of household savings to disposable income both decreased in the third quarter of 2017 to the lowest value since 1999, and remains at these levels, and if so, the possible growth of inflation can be supported only by outpacing growth of wages, other growth factors for inflation, in fact, will not.

The stock market index Euro Stoxx 50 tests 12-month lows, following in the wake of the US indices, which seem to run out of new opportunities to recover.

On Thursday, you need to pay attention to the report on production orders in Germany in February, as well as on PMI indexes from Markit in the services sector. On Friday, the focus will be on the report from the US on the labor market, most likely, it will determine the mood in the markets at the close of the week.

The euro does not yet have a strong driver for continued growth, the initiative remains for the dollar. EURUSD has a tendency to decline, it is possible to try to test the support of 1.2155 for strength in the coming days.

Britain

The PMI Markit index in the manufacturing sector unexpectedly rose in March to 55.1p, while the 54.7p decline was expected, but the similar index for the construction sector fell to a two-year low of 47.0p, indicating that interest rate growth and weak wage growth rates will put pressure on the housing market for a long time.

The pound continues to be steady in the range and has no pronounced direction due to the lack of own fundamental factors. The macroeconomic calendar for the pound is almost empty. The PMI index for the services sector will be published on Thursday and this is the only event this week that should be noted.

The Brexit factor has receded into the background, the trade wars started by Beijing attract more attention to China and the eurozone, the pound has no reason to leave the range. At the same time, the increase in anti-risk sentiment in the markets may strengthen selling, if this trend is confirmed, then the pound will go below support of 1.4007.

Oil

On Wednesday, the US Department of Energy is set to publish data on reserves, expert forecasts are negative, an increase in stocks is expected, which puts pressure on prices. At the same time, on Tuesday the API announced a reduction in inventories against the background of increased processing, so Wednesday's data may be far from the forecasts and could cause volatility in the markets.

According to Novak, the Minister of the Energy of Russia, the OPEC + countries may well be at a meeting in June to discuss the possibility of extending the deal to reduce production and the following year. Earlier it was reported that Russia and Saudi Arabia are working on a document that will make the current temporary agreement permanent, that is, the term of its validity can be extended immediately for 10-20 years. The OPEC countries as a whole are in favor of this perspective, because in their opinion, the agreement played a positive role and led to the elimination of most of the imbalances in the oil market.