The strong growth in demand for defensive assets on Wednesday, when nothing foreshadowed shocks, was triggered by the first in almost 20 years decline in Apple's quarterly revenue forecast by 1 square meter. 2019 from 89-93 billion to 84 billion. At the same time, the expert forecast from Reuters exceeded Apple's estimate by 12%, which is too much to hope for a moderate market reaction.

Actually, the reason is not even at Apple, the American technology giant, in this case, is just an indicator that expectations of a recession in 2019 receive a new impetus. According to analysts at DanskeBank, the stock market was heavily oversold because investors were frightened by the threat of a global recession in 2019, so a rebound was likely even without strong macroeconomic indicators, which is exactly what happened in the past periods. For example, in 1994 and 2011, fear of recession grew for the same reasons as now, and when this threat disappeared, stock markets showed an increase of 19% and 17%, respectively.

Since in 2018 profit growth was quite strong and companies reported improved forecasts for 2019, it was possible to assume that the demand for risky assets would rise again, which would allow both stock markets and oil to recover.

It was on this basis that predictive models were built since profit growth was expected to be stronger than wage growth, which should have led to a reduction in the threat of a global recession and a recovery in demand for assets.

However, an unexpected change in the forecast of Apple raises the question, whether other giants will follow the "apple", which ultimately does not reduce, but on the contrary, sharply increase the threat of recession. Demand for defensive assets will increase, primarily for yen and gold, at least until the threat of a decline in the global economy dominates.

Another important global factor for the first quarter is the question of the US debt ceiling, which Congress will begin to consider against the background of the lack of announcement of the budget, which has already led to the interruption of government work.

At present, the Treasury has about $ 400 billion in Fed accounts, at least half of which will be involved in the next 2 months, which will lead to a decrease in liquidity and will contribute to a stronger dollar. In any case, Nordea sees risks both for risky assets and for the currencies of developing countries from this side, low liquidity will support the dollar and defensive assets.

Thus, the very first week of the new year carries with it the potential threat of a revision of the long-term forecasts. The growth in demand for defensive assets looks more than likely, the dollar will also be in demand, but commodity currencies will be the main victims.

Today, attention will be directed to the ADP report on employment in the private sector, the forecast is neutral, markets expect strong data at the level of December. A little later, ISM's PMI report in the manufacturing sector will be published, there is a danger of seeing a result worse than expected since the regional reports of the Federal Reserve Bank one after another reported a strong decrease in activity.

Eurozone

The currency pair EUR / USD continues to trade in the sideways, as it is not yet possible to find internal drivers to exit it. In November, the ECB's chief economist Peter Praet noted that the growth in average wages would lead to higher inflation in the eurozone in the perspective of 6-12 months, and while this forecast is not threatened, the ECB will take a neutral position and will maintain market expectations on these benchmarks.

Euro rally should not be expected, despite a decline in the Fed's forecasts in 2019, markets are waiting for two rate increases, while the ECB forecast is only 0.2% for the full year.

The forecast for tomorrow's report on the US labor market is moderately positive, so EUR / USD is likely to drift to the recent minimum of 1.1300.

Great Britain

Pound updated the year and a half minimum amid a sharp rise in panic after the Apple report, the chances for recovery in the coming days look weak as the date of the final debate in the British Parliament on Brexit is approaching, and Prime Minister May looks extremely unconvincing.

Attempts to grow in GBP / USD will be blocked at 1.2600 / 05, more likely to decline to the recent minimum of 1.2430 and sideways trading in anticipation of news.