For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a low volatility of 58 points, but this fluctuation was enough to get close to the key value. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a good inertial move, where the quotation, as expected, moved closer to the key point of support in the face of the historical level of 1.2500, eventually slowing down the movement. Considering the graph in general terms, we see a rather interesting picture, the clock frequency on a global basis is preserved, "Impulse --- Correction --- Impulse", where the quote came close to the key coordinate that held us for a long time, and if English currency will continue, further decline to the values of the beginning of 2017 - the end of 2016 is not excluded.
The information and news background of the past day had the results of the second round of elections in Britain for the post of head of the British Conservatives and the Prime Minister. Without any surprise, former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson won, gaining 126 votes, which is more than 12 in the first round. Johnson's closest rival is the current Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt, who scored 46 votes. The pound at this time sluggishly oscillates, storming the lows of 2018. As already written in the previous review, the uncertainty associated with the fate of the UK & EU "divorce" process puts pressure on investors, and as a fact, we see a weakening of the British currency. In terms of the news background, we had statistics regarding the construction sector of the United States, the number of building permits issued in May, as expected, shows a slight increase from 1.290M to 1.294M with a forecast of 1.296M. The volume of construction of new homes was revised from 1.235M to 1.281M, the current figure for May was 1.269M with a forecast of 1.239M.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on inflation in Britain, where a slowdown is expected from 2.1% to 2.0%. The key event of the day is the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations, and although there is no doubt that the parameters of monetary policy themselves will remain unchanged, everyone cares about a completely different question - the fate of the refinancing rate, in particular its decline. Today, the third round of the circus tent in the UK is scheduled, whoever will win it is not worth writing, and everything is clear.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a characteristic pullback from the level of 1.2500 towards the previously passed correction support point of 1.2558, which is normal. It is likely to assume a temporary fluctuation within 1.2500 / 1.2565, where it is worth carefully analyzing the incoming information background, in particular, the results of the FOMC meeting and, of course, the Fed's rhetoric regarding the fate of the rate. Traders, in their turn, shared on two fronts: the first ones are holding a waiting position, considering clear price fixes lower than 1.2500 and in anticipation of the Fed press conference; The second part of the traders is waiting for slowing down and catching the impulses against the background of the statements of Jerome Powell.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short, intraday and medium term perspective are concentrated in a downward plan, which is due to the general background of the market.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(June 19 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 26 points. It is likely to assume that, against the background of the upcoming Fed meeting, volatility may accelerate.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 *; 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.2500; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
