4-hour time frame
Technical data:
The upper linear regression channel: direction - up.
The lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.
CCI: -96.3636
The GBP / USD currency pair has been trading in the 200-point side channel for almost a month and does not want to get out of it while the Euro currency is trading with minimal volatility, but shows at least some signs of a trend movement. In turn, traders stubbornly do not want to trade a pair for the long term, while this very long term is not clear. It is, of course, connected with the parliamentary elections on December 12, and it seems that the movement of the pound / dollar pair inside the channel will continue until this date. Yesterday, the currency pair managed to gain a foothold above the moving average line once again and grow to the Murray level of "8/8" - 1.2939. Formally, this means a new approach to the formation of an upward trend, however, as we have said more than once, buying the pound is clearly not recommended before overcoming the level of 1.2970, or rather the area of 1.2970 - 1.3010. Moreover, on the basis of what now, the pound, after a month of flat, should for no reason start to rise in price again? Traders ignored all macroeconomic reports from the UK. Yesterday's macroeconomic statistics from the United States are ignored as well. Any new data on Brexit or elections? There is none, of course, there remain certain chances for "luck", but we still do not see why the bulls can begin to move the pair up again.
Now, returning to the topic of elections and their possible results, we can say the following: how many votes the party of Boris Johnson will gain is of great importance. However, what is of less importance is exactly how many seats in the Parliament will be occupied not only by the Labor Party, but also by deputies from the Brexit parties and the Social Democrats. According to some experts, after the elections are over, some unions will be created in any case. That is, the Brexit party will support the conservatives, and the Social Democrats - the Labor Party. Thus, it is perfectly reasonable to calculate the total number of votes that not individual parties will gain, but alliance parties. For example, Brexit batch support currently does not exceed 4%. That is, in principle, the desire of the party leader Nigel Farage not to compete with the conservatives in the areas where they won in 2017, is an attempt to select literally 5-10 votes about Johnson's competitors, and no more. Nevertheless, the laborers, who currently have support at about 34%, can unite in the Brexit issue with the Social Democrats, who have support at about 13%, and a total of 47%. Thus, now, Johnson's party has 41% support, the Brexit party - 4%. In total - 45%. Thus, we still believe that the victory of the party of Boris Johnson is practically beyond doubt, but the opposition parties have excellent chances to block Brexit again.
Well, if Brexit is blocked again, then Boris Johnson will fit to resign. Of course, he will not do this and will not "die in a ditch" for the second time, if Great Britain does not leave the EU before January 31 and continues to be a leader. A leader who still did not win a single victory at the moment. As of today, November 28, no important publications are planned again in the UK; the US news calendar is also empty today. Thus, the pound / dollar may try to break out of the upper boundary of the side channel today, but we see no reason for this. Most likely, the pair will turn down already in the next few hours and will tend to go back below the moving average line.
The nearest support levels:
S1 - 1.2909
S2 - 1.2878
S3 - 1.2848
The nearest resistance levels:
R1 - 1.2939
R2 - 1.2970
R3 - 1.3000
Trading recommendations:
GBP/USD remains inside the side channel. The area of 1.2970-1.3010 has remained unsurpassed, so we are not waiting for the formation of a new upward trend. Despite that, you can trade inside the side channel. For example, a rebound is possible from the level of 1.2970 and a turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator down may signal a round of downward movement.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanations for illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel is the blue unidirectional lines.
The lowest linear channel is the violet lines of unidirectional movement.
CCI - blue line in the indicator regression window.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - a blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
Possible price movement options:
Red and green arrows.
