The AUD/USD pair renewed its growth during the Asian session on Tuesday, besieging the boundaries of the 66th figure. And although the price increase is still not very pronounced and rather formal, the dynamics are important here. The aussie has once again demonstrated its "resistance to stress" to negative fundamental factors and even to the general strengthening of the US currency.
Looking ahead, it is worth noting that the dollar bulls failed to organize a rally amid the surge in anti-risk sentiment. And although relations between the United States and China remain tense, US President Donald Trump did not add fuel to the fire yesterday, leaving the Hong Kong theme without comment. Trump's silence surprised investors, since the Hong Kong issue is now almost the number one topic in the world press after coronavirus. Nevertheless, Trump devoted yesterday's speech to the "sleepy Joe Biden," who, in his words, gave China "everything they wanted " by making extortionate deals with them. In addition, Trump praised his administration and indirectly himself - for the effective, in his opinion, fight against COVID-19. According to him, his team made many governors "look very good", but received nothing in return.
Trump's latest statement must be seen in two ways. Firstly, the fact that he did not mention the Hong Kong issue may indicate behind-the-scenes negotiations with Beijing - in that case, the emotional tweet of the US president (and he doesn't have others) could destroy certain diplomatic constructions. Actually, against the backdrop of such assumptions, the dollar index lost ground and barely reached 99.97 points.
Secondly, all of Trump's tweets and statements must now be viewed through the prism of the presidential election, which will be held in the United States in just five months. According to a recent poll, Joe Biden is confidently ahead of the White House head at the national level. Moreover, the survey was conducted by the conservative American television channel Fox News, which, so to speak, "favors" the Republicans. So, according to their data, Biden has increased his lead: 48% of respondents are ready to vote for the Democrat, while for Trump - 40%. In addition, in the category of those voters who are "very interested in voting" this fall, Biden has an immediate advantage of 12 percent - 53% against 41%. A previous survey showed that the gap between politicians is only 5%. Then Biden's rating was reduced against the background of the statement of his former employee Tara Reid about sexual harassment, but the Democrat's opponents were not able to "untwist" this scandal so that it became a rating anchor.
In other words, the absence of any of Trump's comments regarding the Hong Kong issue lowered the degree of heat in the market, due to which the dollar index turned around and headed towards the 98th figure. It should be noted that such dynamics may be temporary, since the problem itself has remained on the agenda: the law on national security in Hong Kong has not been withdrawn from consideration, and it seems that this week it will be adopted by Chinese parliamentarians. But, as we see, any relief in US-Chinese relations (even of a tacit nature) reduces the demand for the dollar, which is used as the main defensive asset.
It is also worth noting that the Australian dollar has its own arguments for its growth. The fact is that today, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison presented an anti-crisis program called "JobMaker". We are talking about changes in education (in the context of better training) and tax policy. Morrison also stated the need for deregulation in some sectors of the economy, adding that lowering electricity prices will play a key role in stimulating economic growth. Morrisson has so far only outlined the anti-crisis program, so we cannot "put it on the shelves." Nevertheless, the initiative itself was positively received by traders - the Australian dollar has grown throughout the market, even against the greenback.
Thus, buyers remain cautiously optimistic. The Australian dollar has once again demonstrated its stability, thereby reflecting the stability of the upward trend. Bursts of anti-risk sentiment may put pressure on the aussie, but any more or less large-scale decline in prices can be used to open long positions. From a technical point of view, the pair could drop to 0.6550 within the day (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which coincides with the Kijun-sen line on the 30-minute chart). If we look at medium-term prospects, here we can consider growth to the main resistance level of 0.6610 - this is the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart.
