Latest COT report (Commitments of Traders). Weekly outlook for EUR/USD

As shown by the latest COT report (Commitments of Traders dated 07.07.20.), open interest in the euro rose again and amounted to 593.341. Together with open interest, the final net position (51533) has also grown; it still has an advantage over short positions. Non-Commercial Group increased its net position by 4,642, taking advantage of long positions (103,597). According to the results of the report, the Commercial group has a net position of 155.130 with an advantage over short positions. At the same time, clients of leading dealers (Dealer Intermediary) from the financial report remain on the side of the bulls and maintain a percentage advantage in positions at a very high level (4.6 against 59.8). It should be noted that over the last reporting period, all participants were in solidarity, focusing primarily on increasing investments. Lastly, there is no reduction in the number of contracts for the main reporting items.

Main conclusion

Dramatic changes in the previous report were not confirmed and continued. The situation has stabilized again and it is unlikely that significant and obvious changes in the current trends will be expected in the near future.

Technical picture

There have been no significant changes in the technical picture since the last analysis. For weeks, the pair continues to remain in the consolidation zone, trying to consolidate in the bullish zone relative to the Ichimoku cloud, but at the same time, weekly candles have long upper shadows. On the daily timeframe, the players to increase managed to stay on the supports of the daily Ichimoku cross, but progress has not been observed for a long time. The leading reference points remain the same. For players to increase, the sequential update and consolidation above the maximum extremes of the previous movement - 1.1422 and 1.1496 - is now important. For players to decline, it is important to leave the zone of weekly consolidation and daily uncertainty, its minimum is 1.1168.

At the lower time intervals, the uncertainty of the higher timings has led to the fact that the advantages that are due to the possession of key levels do not allow to achieve results. Currently, the key H1 levels are supports and are located at 1.1304 (weekly long-term trend) and 1.1293 (central Pivot level). Other intraday upward reference points today include 1.1371 (last week's high) and 1.1401 (R3). A consolidation below the key supports (1.1304 - 1.1293) will return the relevance of the classic Pivot levels S1 (1.1261) -S2 (1.1223) - S3 (1.1191).

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average (120)