To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

I paid attention to the level of 1.1749 in my morning forecast and recommended opening long positions from it when breaking and consolidating. The 5-minute chart shows a classic breakout followed by fixing and testing this range from top to bottom, which forms a good entry point into the market. In our case, there were long positions. The upward movement has already reached about 25 points, however, we have not reached the key goal yet.

Therefore, as long as trading is conducted above 1.1749, we can expect the European currency to continue recovering to the resistance area of 1.1796, where I recommend taking the profit, since it will not be so easy to break above this range. The focus in the second half of the day will be shifted to the publication of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve. Only a break and consolidation above 1.1796 will form a signal to open long positions in the continuation of the strengthening of EUR/USD with a test of the maximum of 1.1833, where you can also exit the market. If the pressure on the euro returns and the pair falls below 1.1749 since there is a high probability that the second half of the day will again pass under the flag of bears, it is better not to rush with purchases, but wait for the update of the major support of 1.1701 and open long positions from there immediately for a rebound in the expectation of a correction of 20-30.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

The bears did not cope with their task and missed the level of 1.1749. Therefore, the focus in the second half of the day is again shifted to the protection of the resistance of 1.1796. You can sell from this level by analogy with yesterday after a false breakout is formed. However, the bears' more important goal is to return to the support of 1.1749. Only fixing below this level will form a larger entry point for short positions and return the market to sellers, allowing them to reach the area of 1.1701, where I recommend fixing the profits. The longer-term goal remains the support of 1.1656. A speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, scheduled for this afternoon, could put further pressure on the euro. If the bulls achieve a breakout of the resistance of 1.1796, it is best not to rush with sales, but wait for growth to a new maximum of 1.1833 or sell the euro immediately to rebound from the maximum of 1.1868 in the expectation of a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for September 29 recorded a reduction in both long and short positions, which led to a decrease in the delta. Apparently, the lack of benchmarks and the surge in the incidence of coronavirus in Europe discouraged major players from building up long positions in the euro, however, no one is in a hurry to buy the US dollar because of the upcoming US presidential election. Thus, long non-profit positions decreased from 247,049 to 241,967, while short non-profit positions decreased from 56,227 to 53,851. The total non-commercial net position also fell to 188,116 from 190,822 a week earlier, indicating a wait-and-see attitude for new players, however, the bullish sentiment for the euro remains quite high in the medium term. The more the euro declines against the US dollar, the more attractive it will be for new investors.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted around 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator around 1.1785. If the pair falls, the lower border in the area of 1.1715 will provide support.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.