The wave marking of the 4-hour chart is still quite unambiguous and looks quite clear. At the moment, the structure of the waves a-b-c-d-e looks fully equipped and complete. However, in recent days, an alternative option has emerged, based on which the trend section that originates on February 25 (where the peak of wave b is now located) can be the third wave c, which has taken a three-wave form, where each internal wave also has a three-wave form. I was prompted to make this assumption by the discrepancy between the size of the first waves of the downward trend and the expected last ones. For example, the assumed wave d is much smaller than the assumed wave a. Thus, I assume that the entire downward section of the trend will take a three-wave correction form, which is the same as my initial assumptions about the structure of a-b-c-d-e. In any case, this section of the trend is either completed or is nearing its completion. A lot will depend on the news background, which should not prevent the European currency from rising.
On Friday, reports on the number of new jobs outside of agriculture, as well as on unemployment and wages were due to be released in the United States. And these reports should have led to the fact that the demand for the US currency will grow even stronger. However, as I said above, the current wave markup looks complete and may now take precedence over the news background. On Friday, both of these assumptions worked 100%. The number of new NonFarm jobs was 916 thousand, which is significantly more than the markets expected. However, there was no reaction to this report. The same goes for the unemployment report and the payroll report. Thus, the markets could not accidentally ignore this data. Perhaps they are already preparing for new purchases of the euro/dollar instrument, and the Nonfarm Payrolls report no longer played any role for them. Anyway, right now I'm leaning towards building a new upward wave anyway. As it develops, it will be necessary to look at how much the demand for the European currency will increase and draw appropriate conclusions based on this. Most of all, I am confused by the difficult situation in the Eurozone with vaccination and, accordingly, the weak prospects for economic recovery in the future, which may reduce the demand for the European currency in the Forex market.
Based on the analysis, I now expect to build a new upward wave, possibly the first one as part of a new upward trend section. Thus, in the case of a successful attempt to break through the mark of 1.1777, which corresponds to 76.4% of the Fibonacci, I recommend buying the instrument. I don't see the point in defining the goals yet. It will be necessary to see whether a new upward wave will develop.
The wave marking of the upward trend section is still quite complete in its five-wave form and is not going to become more complicated yet. But the section of the trend, which began its construction immediately after it, takes on a corrective, but quite an understandable form. The assumed wave d was shortened, so the construction of the assumed wave e is now continuing. The entire trend section can be transformed into a-b-c.
