The wave counting on the 4-hour chart is still quite unambiguous and looks quite understandable. At the moment, the structure of waves a -b-c-d-e looks fully completed. However, over the past few days, an alternative option has also appeared, based on which the trend section that originates on February 25 (where the peak of wave b is now located) can be the third wave c, which, in turn, has taken a three-wave form, where each internal wave also has a three-wave form. Such wave counting looks even more convincing since it is a classic corrective counting and in any case does not violate the main variant, implying five down waves. Anyway, now I can assume that the construction of the downward trend is completed. If this is indeed the case, then the increase in quotes will continue with targets located near the 20th and 21st figures. Of course, the construction of a new upward trend section doesn't need to begin now. The instrument can begin to build an upward corrective structure, which can be almost of any length. But at least a few upward waves I expect.
On Monday, there was not a single important news or report in the European Union. And in the US, the ISM index of business activity in the service sector came out by the end of the day, which, however, did not help the dollar in any way. Thus, the news background for the instrument on Monday was almost zero, and on Tuesday too. ECB President Christine Lagarde recently commented that investors can test the central bank for as long as they want, but it will still not give up on its mandate. Let me remind you that in recent months, both in the United States and in Europe, the yields on government bonds of various terms began to grow sharply. The ECB even had to increase the rate of buying bonds from the market to resist the growth of borrowing and create at least a small deficit in the debt market. Eurobond yields rose on the back of a growing US economy and US Treasury yields. However, if the American economy is ready for such a development of events (at least Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen showed no signs of concern about this), then the European economy, mired in new quarantines and too slow deployment of the vaccination process, is clearly not ready for this. According to experts' forecasts, the European economy will reach its pre-pandemic level only in mid-2022, that is, a whole year later than the American economy. Also in the European Union, there are global problems with inflation, which, judging by the latest report, has decreased, if you do not take into account food and fuel.
Based on the analysis, I now expect the formation of a new upward wave, possibly the first in the new upward trend section. Thus, in case of a successful attempt to break through the 1.1777 mark, which corresponds to 76.4% Fibonacci, I recommend buying the instrument. I don't see any sense in defining targets yet. It will be necessary to see if a new upward wave will develop.
The wave counting of the upward trend section still has a fully completed five-wave form and is not going to get complicated yet. But the section of the trend, which began its construction immediately after it, takes on a corrective, but quite understandable form. Supposed wave d turned out to be shortened, therefore now the construction of the supposed wave e continues. The entire section of the trend can transform into a-b-c.
