EUR/USD – 1H.
During the last trading day, the EUR/USD pair fell to the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1881), a rebound from it, a small increase, and a return to this Fibo level. A new rebound of quotes from this level will again work in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1922). Closing the pair's exchange rate below the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next corrective level of 50.0% (1.1847). Meanwhile, the proposed plan of the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to introduce a single corporate income tax for all countries is being discussed in full force around the world. Let me remind you that Yellen proposed the introduction of such a tax to avoid the flight of large companies from rich countries with high taxes to countries with lower tax rates. Of course, this idea was supported only by the same rich countries as the United States itself. Last week, the G-20 summit was held, during which most of its participants approved of this idea. However, some states spoke out against it, for example, Ireland. Thus, it is still completely unclear how this tax will be implemented everywhere, however, the fact that it will entail serious changes around the world is almost 100%. Many international companies will begin to relocate their offices or separate divisions, again to minimize their costs and the costs of all their activities. Recall that in the United States, corporate taxes are also expected to increase from 21% to 28%, as well as a whole list of other taxes for rich Americans and rich corporations. Joe Biden's new US infrastructure project requires investment.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, after rebounding from the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1729), the pair's quotes continue to grow in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). Fixing the pair's rate above the level of 1.1836 increases the chances of further growth. There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1822). Thus, the further fall of the pair is canceled for the time being, and instead, the growth can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 323.6% (1.2080). Closing below the level of 261.8% will again work in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 200.0% (1.1566).
EUR/USD –Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has consolidated above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On April 9, the calendar of economic events in the European Union and the United States was almost empty, thus, there was practically no information background.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - retail trade volume change (09:00 UTC).
On April 12, the calendars of economic events in the US and the EU are again almost empty. The information background will be minimal today, as there will still be one report in the EU.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which turned out to be quite neutral this time. During the reporting week, Non-commercial traders closed 7,679 long contracts and 6,702 short contracts. Thus, the mood of speculators for the reporting week almost did not change. In total, in recent weeks, speculators have been getting rid of long contracts more and at the same time increasing short contracts. Thus, in general, their mood becomes more "bearish". Consequently, the COT reports allow us to conclude the possible continuation of the fall in quotes, however, the total number of long contracts focused on the hands of large players remains higher than the total number of short contracts. That is, the upward trend is not yet complete.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend selling the pair if it closes at the level of 61.8% (1.1881) on the hourly chart with targets of 1.1847 and 1.1813. Purchases of the pair were recommended with the targets of 1.1820 and 1.1873, and both goals have been achieved so far. I recommend new purchases of the pair when fixing above the level of 1.1922 with a target of 1.1989.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
