Nothing was said about inflation in the text of the minutes of the FOMC meeting just a month and a half ago, as this issue did not seem to have been considered. There were only a few insignificant phrases related to it. This time, much more attention is paid to inflation. However, nothing has changed from this. The Fed still considers the inflation growth as purely temporary and accidental, which means there is no reason to worry and adjust the parameters of its monetary policy. This is despite the fact that inflation has already risen to 4.2%.
At the same time, as follows from the text of the minutes of the FOMC meeting, the increase in consumer prices was caused solely by the rise in energy prices, which in turn, is mostly due to seasonal factors. But this is quite unusual, since if only one factor can lead to such a rapid rise in prices, then something in the economy is clearly not right. Moreover, if this is a seasonal factor, why was nothing like this observed in previous years? Unfortunately, these are quite absurd questions from the viewpoint of the markets. Why ask them if the Federal Reserve System has clearly stated that there will be no tightening of monetary policy anytime soon? After all, this could harm the economic recovery. But after the situation on the labor market normalizes, it will be possible to think about raising interest rates. Such a statement was enough for investors, and the US dollar immediately rose quite impressively. Thus, all leave all sorts of questions about the real economic state for later or better not to voice them at all. The behavior is quite strange, and usually, such irrational optimism precedes serious economic crises. This is exactly how it was before the 2008 crisis.
Nevertheless, the US dollar has currently received a serious growth impulse. In other words, we can now talk about a change in the medium-term trend towards growth, although there is currently some stagnation. The market is understanding yesterday's growth. Now, any relatively positive American data will lead exactly to a noticeable growth of the US dollar.
The EUR/USD pair went into a pullback stage after encountering the resistance level of 1.2250. It lowered the quotes towards a variable pivot point in the area of 1.2165/1.2180. We can assume that price fluctuations along the indicated area will not last long, where the best trading tactic will be the method of breaking through a particular border of the range, working on the principle of an outgoing impulse.
The GB/PUSD pair repeats the cycles of its European counterpart on the market, where the level of 1.4224 serves as a resistance level, while the level of 1.4100, wherein a price stagnation occured, serves as a support during the pullback stage. The amplitude move in the range of 1.4100/1.4120 is a kind of accumulation stage, which will eventually lead to local acceleration. The trading tactic is chosen based on the principle of the outgoing impulse relative to the specified borders.
