The wave counting on the 4-hour chart of bitcoin is absolutely clear on the higher scale. At this time, we see a classic three-wave correction structure a-b-c. If the current wave counting is correct, then at least three upward waves should follow. Two of these three waves have already been built, therefore, we can count on the construction of wave c soon. Targets for this wave can be located near the 50.0% Fibonacci level, which equates to $46,800, or at least around the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which corresponds to $42,500. But let me remind you that bitcoin is very vulnerable to the news background. If tomorrow, for example, new important information arrives on the market, this may well once again collapse the bitcoin quotes. But the wave counting now speaks of a very likely increase in the quotes of the main cryptocurrency. I am not considering alternative wave counting options now, as there are no grounds for this.
The mood in the cryptocurrency market remains depressing. Along with bitcoin, many other cryptocurrencies are also falling in price. Investors are not buying bitcoin now, despite its rather low cost. This means that at this time, there is no faith in a new upward trend section. In addition, even without taking into account the possible actions of Elon Musk or his new statements, which have a strong impact on the entire market, the news background is now full of other important messages that could affect bitcoin in the worst possible way. As previously mentioned, the United States is planning to introduce new tax legislation, which will require all transactions over $10,000 to be submitted to the IRS for review. Thus, many investors can opt out of cryptocurrency transactions, since they will no longer be anonymous in the literal sense of the word.
The US government, led by Joe Biden, believes that many investors are using cryptocurrencies for tax evasion, so they are going to pass new legislation. Of course, it may take more than one month before this law is signed by the president and comes into force. After all, this requires that the US Congress also approve it. Nevertheless, the outlook is rather bleak. The prospects for bitcoin in China are even worse, where they are going to ban any mining of cryptocurrencies altogether. Here, too, everything is at the level of rumors and conversations. But, as they say, there is no smoke without fire. Thus, I can conclude that there is no new reason for investors to buy bitcoin so far. If these bills fail eventually, then the news background for bitcoin will dramatically improve. In the meantime, I really do not see any prospects for the main cryptocurrency above $42,000. And I am considering this option only because the wave counting speaks in its favor.
Based on the analysis, I believe that the three-wave downward structure is complete. However, the movements of recent days have been so fast and strong that it will take some time for the market to clear up. The current wave counting indicates a possible increase, so I recommend small purchases of bitcoin for each MACD signal "up" with targets located around $42,500. A failed attempt to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci level could lead to another strong decline in bitcoin.
