On the four-hour time frame, the wave pattern is still absolutely clear and does not require any additions. The previous movements raise small questions about their belonging to a certain wave of a bigger scale, but in general, the wave pattern does not require any additions or clarifications. It can be assumed that the 3-in-3 wave is now continuing its formation. If so, the increase in quotes will continue with targets located near the level of 1.2350, which corresponds to 0.0% in Fibonacci. Given the size and length of the proposed first wave, which also raises no questions, the third wave can also be quite extended. In addition, the instrument made two unsuccessful attempts to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level, which also indicates that the markets are not ready for sales. By all indications, the increase in the quotes of this instrument should continue.
The news background last Friday was quite filled, although it cannot be said that it strongly influenced the current wave pattern. The details will not be discussed, so let's just say that the business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sectors of the EU and the US turned out to be higher than a month earlier. Therefore, both the euro and the dollar received some market support. The speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde, who said that it is too early for the ECB to discuss the possible end of the bond-buying program had the biggest impact on the instrument. Recently, the program of emergency response to the consequences of the pandemic (PEPP) is 1.85 trillion euros and has already been expanded and extended several times. Lagarde said, "We are committed to maintaining favorable funding conditions through the PEPP program, and we intend to do so at least until March 2022." Thus, it ended all speculation that the European Central Bank may begin to tighten monetary policy. In fact, Lagarde's similar rhetoric did not raise any questions, as did the marking of the EUR/USD pair. The European economy ended the fourth and first quarters with negative economic growth. Therefore, it would be naive to expect that the ECB will announce the curtailment of the bond-buying program after such weak values, even without waiting for data for the second quarter of 2021. But still, it was the "dovish" rhetoric that let the quotes slightly exit from the reached highs, that is, a decline in the Euro currency. However, the increase in quotes has continued and an exit to the 23rd mark and above can be expected this week.
Based on the analysis, the instrument is still expected to rise. At this time, the construction of the correctional wave 2 or b, as well as the internal wave 2 as part of the assumed 3, is supposedly completed. Thus, it is now suggested to continue to buy the instrument with targets located around the 23rd mark for each MACD upward signal. There are no reasons to revise the current wave pattern yet, as it seems perfect.
The wave pattern of the upward trend section is still quite a complete, five-wave form and is not going to get complex yet. But the section of the trend, which started to form immediately after it, took on a corrective and fully completed form. If the current wave pattern is correct, then the formation of a new upward trend section continues and its first two waves have already been done.
