On the four-hour chart, the wave pattern of the EUR/USD pair has slightly become confused lately and is becoming vaguer. Nevertheless, no adjustments or additions are still required. Until last Friday, the wave pattern assumed a continued increase in the quotes of the instrument within the global wave 3 and within its internal wave 3. However, the amplitude of the movement of the instrument left was disappointing throughout the previous week, and trading took place in a very narrow price range. On Friday, the quotes significantly fell, but they also increased on the same day. Thus, the current wave pattern is now similar to the five-wave structure, in which the construction of wave 3 was recently completed. The wave structure within which is not completely unambiguous. However, there are five waves, so at this time, the instrument may be at the stage of building wave 4 of the same upward trend section. Therefore, I expect the quotes to continue their growth in the near future with targets located near the high of wave 5 in 5 of the previous upward trend, namely around the 1.2350 level.
The news background for this instrument was weak and unimportant on Monday. There were no economic reports on the EU and the US, so the markets could only pay attention to the indicators of individual countries of the European Union, which have much less influence on the European currency than the pan-European data. But in this case, it is necessary to look at at least the largest countries of the European Union and their data. For example, the inflation rate was released in Spain, Italy, and Germany. In general, only the Italian consumer price index was disappointing, which rose by 1.3% y-o-y only.
The German indicator sharply increased to 2.5% y/y, while Spain also did so to 2.7% y/y. However, this data had no effect on the instrument. The instrument's amplitude of movement is 11 points, which means that the distance from the low to the peak of the day at the moment is 22 points. There are no more important events on the calendar at the start of the week. On Tuesday, the consumer price index will be released throughout the European Union, and this information may affect the Euro currency and the demand for it. EU inflation is expected to accelerate to 1.9% y/y. The index of business activity in the EU manufacturing sector, as well as the unemployment rate, will also be released. As for America, there will also be something to pay attention to – the indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sector ISM and Markit will be released. The first one is especially important. Thus, there will be more chances to see active movements of the EUR/USD pair today.
Based on the analysis, the quotes of the instrument are still expected to rise, although the current wave pattern is quite uncertain, as it can take on a completely different form. In any case, it is still recommended to buy the instrument with targets located around the levels of 1.2300 and 1.2340, for each MACD upward signal, but now, a further decline in quotes (which will not prevent trading on the increase, since the MACD will be directed down during it) may lead to the recognition of the end of the entire current upward trend.
The wave pattern of the upward trend section is still quite complete. The section of the trend, which started to form immediately after it, took on a corrective and also fully completed form. If the current wave pattern is correct, then the construction of a new section of the upward trend continues and its first two waves have completed.
