The wave counting on the 4-hour chart of Bitcoin still suggests an increase in quotes. Even despite the current decline in quotes. At the moment, presumably, the construction of waves a and b of a new upward correction has been completed. If this is true, then the rise in quotes will resume as part of the construction of wave c with targets located above the peak of wave a, that is, above the $42,000 mark. At the same time, the market sentiment remains negative, which makes it impossible to consider this option with 100% confidence. I assumed earlier that the news background for the main cryptocurrency could deteriorate, leading to a new decline. And so it happened, thanks to Elon Musk. All news feeds today are full of headlines associated with the CEO of Tesla. However, more on that below. Even despite the current decline, the wave counting still allows the resumption of the upward wave, which, apparently, will simply take on a more complex and extended form. I already said earlier that after a drop in quotes by 50% or even more, Bitcoin can begin to build complex corrective structures over a long period of time.
The news background for Bitcoin, as I have said many times, remains quite negative. And today it got worse. It is, of course, a little funny and very paradoxical that one person, even one as influential and famous as Elon Musk, can manipulate the course of the main cryptocurrency. This is not the first time Musk has commented on bitcoin, which leads to serious changes in its value. Even today, one small message from the social network Twitter was enough for the quotes to drop by $3,000. Musk didn't even write anything in the literal sense of the word. He only posted a breakup meme in his account and added a "broken heart" emoji. However, this was enough for the markets to read in this short message Musk and Tesla's reluctance to continue "cooperation" with bitcoin. Let me remind you that earlier Musk popularized bitcoin with all his might, regularly speaking flatteringly about it, and after him, Tesla announced the purchase of coins in the amount of $1.5 billion and the ability to pay for Tesla cars in bitcoins. However, after a couple of months, Tesla announced the sale of some bitcoins and removed the ability to pay in digital currency. Now, many expect that Tesla will continue to sell its coins if it has not already done so. In general, messages from Elon Musk really have a serious impact on the cryptocurrency market, since not only bitcoin reacts to them. Many other cryptocurrencies are also responsive. For example, ether, which also lost about 10% of its value.
Based on the analysis, I believe that the three-wave downward structure is complete. The current wave counting indicates a possible rise within wave c, I continue to recommend buying bitcoin for each MACD signal "up" with targets located around $42,500. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci level could lead to a new decline in bitcoin quotes, possibly even as part of a new downward wave 5. So far, there are no alternative wave counting options.
