On December 21, the market expressed optimism about the satisfying ending of 2021, when bitcoin steadily moved out of its broad range. It seemed that the cryptocurrency would consolidate above $50,000 and continue its upward movement to $52,000, after which it would resume rising to higher levels. However, the bearish doubts were still justified, and Bitcoin once again sank into a wide range of fluctuations.
On December 28, the theory that the first cryptocurrency made a false breakout of the psychological level of $50,000 was confirmed. On the daily chart, the price returned to the wide fluctuation area of $42,000-$49,000 with a confident red candle after several days of uncertainty. The main factor that caused cryptocurrency to enter the range is passive buyers. The market still lacks large buying volumes, provided only by major institutional investors. Even the local outbreak between December 21 and December 23 was accompanied by increased activity from 0.1-1000 BTC. This fact suggests that large bitcoin holders are not ready to force events and push the price up.
The main reason for passive large investors is probably Christmas and New Year holidays. The activity of the retail audience during this period is offset by the passivity of institutional investors due to holidays in the markets. Besides, the expiration period is approaching, which will increase the volatility of the cryptocurrency market and make active trading unsafe. However, there is no point to worry as bitcoin is in an uptrend. Besides, the current situation is very similar to the May period of volume accumulation. During the spring consolidation, the price also made a false breakout and subsequently returned to a wide range of fluctuations. At the end of December, a similar situation arises. So, if the price movement is similar, bitcoin is expected to decline in the area of $42,000-$45,000.
As of 12:00, the main cryptocurrency has fallen by 3% over the day and is trying to hold the support zone at $47,600 with the Fibo level of 0.786. The price started declining after trying to reach $52,000. However, sellers defended their positions, then bitcoin started to go down to $50,000. Such price movements are typical during the periods of consolidation and weak buyer's activity. BTC/USD quotations went beyond the Fibo level of 0.786, which caused bulls to buy back locally.
This is evidenced by the stochastic oscillator, which made a sharp reversal upwards. RSI index also indicates the rise in purchases due to which bitcoin is held at $47,600. According to the general price dynamics, the support area of $47,600 will be broken soon, and then the price will start climbing $45,600. I assume that the buyers' reaction will sharpen in this area and either the liquidation of long positions will take place or the asset will recover above $47,000.
I expect the first option as buyers are not able to handle the current sales offers. Therefore, a decline to $42,000-$45,000, long positions, further liquidity and reversal to $50,000 are expected. I assume buyers will be active in the second week of January, when volatility will fall and the accumulation period will be coming to an end.
