For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave markup continues to look very convincing and does not require any additions. This is because the instrument moves only in one direction and with a low amplitude from day to day. The assumed wave d-E is completed, and there should be five waves in total inside the wave E, respectively, as in the case of the euro/dollar instrument, the downward trend section can continue its construction for some time within the wave e-E. A successful attempt to break through the 76.4% Fibonacci level indicates that the market is ready for new sales of the British. This wave may turn out to be very long, or it may be shortened. Since the low of the proposed wave c-E has already been broken, the wave e-E can end at any moment. Technically, it has already updated the low of the previous wave. However, I still expect that the decline in the British dollar within this wave will be much stronger, given the current situation in Ukraine and the economic background in the UK, USA, and Europe. In general, the wave pattern still looks very organic. I am not considering alternative options yet.
The pound can't find growth factors in any way
The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument decreased by 10 basis points on April 13 and lost about 30 a day earlier. Thus, the demand for the British continues to decline, although not too fast. And the instrument itself continues to fall, though not too fast. Such a slowness of the market with the sales of the instrument suggests that he does not see any good reasons for this yet. But it also sees no reason at all to buy the pound now. Yesterday, it turned out that inflation in the UK is growing at about the same rate as in the US. It is only a couple of months late from the American indicator. I wouldn't be surprised if British inflation exceeds 8% by the end of April or May. However, at this time, attention will be drawn to the Bank of England and Andrew Bailey. Let me remind you that the British regulator has already raised the interest rate three times this year. But is it ready to further tighten monetary policy?
Analysts are not sure of a positive answer to this question. From the very beginning of 2022, the markets were confident that the Bank of England would raise the rate once or twice. Now, when there have been as many as three increases, and inflation continues to rise anyway, it is clear that more serious measures need to be taken. But during one of his last speeches, the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, said that he was not sure about the need to raise the rate for the fourth time in a row. In addition, Bailey has never said that the rate should be brought to a neutral value in 2022, as in America. And British GDP is not as strong as American GDP. In the fourth quarter, there was an increase of only 1.3% q/q, in America in the same quarter the increase was 6.9% q/q. Based on this, the Fed now has much more opportunities to tighten monetary policy than the British Central Bank. The advantage remains with the US currency, which allows us to expect a further decline in demand for the British dollar and a decrease in the quotes of the instrument by another 200-300 points down.
General conclusions
The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument still assumes the construction of wave E. I continue to advise selling the instrument with targets located around the 1.2676 mark, which corresponds to 100.0% Fibonacci, according to the MACD signals "down", since the wave e-E does not look complete yet.
At the higher scale, wave D looks complete, but the entire downward section of the trend does not. Therefore, in the coming weeks, I expect the decline of the instrument to continue with targets well below the low of wave C. Wave E should take a five-wave form, so I expect to see the quotes of the British near the 27th figure.
