The European Central Bank, following the results of the June meeting, kept interest rates at the same level, thus justifying the forecasts of most experts. And although some analysts still allowed a 25-point hike at this meeting, they were in a clear minority - the ECB (especially in its current composition) is too inert and predictable for such an unexpected step. Therefore, traders initially completely ignored the preservation of the status quo by the ECB. This scenario was too expected.

At a press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde voiced the already familiar rhetoric, without deviating from the "general" line. By and large, the main message of the June meeting was recorded in the text of the accompanying statement. Members of the Board of Governors indicated that the central bank intends to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting after the completion of the APP asset purchase program - that is, after July 1 (the next meeting of the ECB is scheduled for July 21).

The voiced script was also widely anticipated. It was repeatedly voiced by Lagarde last month, commenting on inflationary trends. Meanwhile, some of her colleagues tightened their rhetoric significantly after the release of the May inflation report, which reflected the growth of the general CPI in the eurozone to 8.1% and the core index to 3.8%. Representatives of the "hawk wing" of the ECB started talking about the need to raise the deposit rate by half a percentage point at once - at the July or September meeting. In the run-up to the June meeting, hawkish expectations intensified: rate futures quotes showed that the market estimated a 50% chance of a 50 basis point increase in the rate by the ECB at the July meeting. At the June meeting, the central bank was supposed to prepare the markets for such a decisive step.

But the ECB once again confirmed its reputation, showing excessive caution and prudence. Of course, the central bank demonstrates indecisiveness "not from a good life." Such behavior is to some extent justified by objective circumstances. According to economists interviewed by the Financial Times, Lagarde faces a super-difficult task: on the one hand, the ECB must regain control over prices, extinguishing a jump in inflationary growth. On the other hand, the central bank should not provoke a panic in the bond markets of the most vulnerable EU countries. On one side of the scale - the fight against inflation, on the other - the risk of recession. The central bank is forced to maneuver "between the raindrops", excluding the most radical scenarios.

It is noteworthy that Lagarde actually did not rule out the hypothetical possibility of a 50-point rate hike following the results of the September meeting. But she did it in a vague manner, not allowing EUR/USD bulls to "grab" this hawkish signal.

So, answering the question of why the ECB announced a 25-point rate increase in July, the head of the ECB said that it is "good practice" to start a cycle of raising interest rates with a gradual increase - "significant, but not excessive." A little later, during a press conference, she developed this idea. According to her, the calibration of the rate hike will depend on the updated medium-term inflation forecast: "if the medium-term inflation forecast remains or worsens, it would be appropriate to increase the growth at the September meeting."

However, the market "did not hear" this signal. Hawkish sentiment increased significantly ahead of the June meeting - this began to unwind after the release of data on the growth of May inflation in the eurozone. Therefore, EUR/USD bulls drove themselves into a trap: for the development of the upward trend, they needed not a hawkish scenario, but an "ultra hawkish" one. For example, if the ECB, contrary to all forecasts, would raise the rate at the June meeting by 25 points, while pledging to increase it by September to 0.25%. Or if the central bank "plain text" announced a 50-point increase at the September meeting. In this case, the euro has significantly strengthened its position throughout the market, and the EUR/USD pair would not be an exception here.

Whereas the scenario implemented today disappointed the bulls. Too cautious, too predictable and too vague. As a result of the press conference, traders tried to approach the resistance level of 1.0760, but this impulse was initially doomed to failure. The single currency did not receive the necessary support, so the price slowed down its growth, not even approaching the above price barrier. The bears seized the initiative, who were trying to overcome the support level, located at around 1.0640 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart).

Thus, the ECB did not become an ally of EUR/USD bulls. Now the question is whether US inflation will become an ally of the dollar. If tomorrow's report is in the green zone, then bearish sentiment for the pair will increase significantly, allowing bears to return to the area of the 5th figure. Therefore, it is advisable to open short positions after consolidating under the support level of 1.0640. Long positions in the current conditions of a fundamental nature, in any case, look extremely risky.