02.10.2023 04:03 AM
The euro put an end to it

The European Central Bank has tamed inflation. This is evidenced by the slowdown in consumer prices in the eurozone in September from 5.2% to 4.3%, the base indicator – from 5.3% to 4.5%. The actual figures turned out to be lower than anticipated, which supports expectations that the ECB has ended its monetary tightening cycle and this in turn, has exerted downward pressure on the EUR/USD. However, thanks to the massive profit-taking on short positions, stopping the euro bulls is not an easy feat.

Dynamics of European inflation

This image is no longer relevant

The Bloomberg model, which correctly predicted European inflation in September, signals its slowdown to 3.5% in October. The ECB's forecasts call for the HCPI to return to its 2% target in the second half of 2024, although this could happen sooner due to the weak economy. At the same time, the futures market has adjusted expectations of the first rate cut from its current level of 4% to the second quarter of 2024.

Let me remind you that the Federal Reserve does not expect the PCE to return to the 2% target earlier than 2025. FOMC officials are wavering between keeping borrowing costs high and raising them further. Thus, divergence in monetary policy plays into the bears' hands. However, you need to understand that this has already been factored in the quotes of the main currency pair. As a result, the euro looks oversold and uses any form of positive news to counterattack. A correction is clearly overdue.

Dynamics of EUR USD and differential of interest rate swaps

This image is no longer relevant

What could go wrong with the central banks' plan? On paper, rising oil prices will affect the entire economy. It will slow down GDP and accelerate inflation expectations and consumer prices. In practice, the potential of a Brent rally appears limited. To continue the uptrend, the North Sea Brent Crude needs either an improvement in global demand or a reduction in supply.

The first problem is due to the aggressive tightening of monetary policy by the Fed and other central banks. Yes, China may accelerate, but this is clearly not enough against the background of a cooling US economy and the eurozone teetering on the brink of stagflation and recession. As for the voluntary crude oil output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, OPEC+ is well aware that it is losing its market share. It is doubtful that the group will keep production at a low level for a long time.

This image is no longer relevant

The combination of limited growth in supply and demand suggests that oil will not soar from current levels. Consequently, neither the Fed nor the ECB should be afraid about renewed price pressures. It seems that the cycles of monetary tightening have been completed both in Europe and in the United States. If so, then the dynamics of EUR/USD will be determined by such factors as the cooling of the American economy and the recovery of the European one.

Technically, on the daily chart, traders eye an important level like 1.059. Closing above it will increase the risks of correction in the direction of 1.062, 1.0655 and 1.0715, where it makes sense to use a rebound to sell EUR/USD.

Marek Petkovich,
الخبير التحليلي لدى شركة إنستافوركس
© 2007-2024
كسب عائد من تغيرات أسعار العملات المشفرة مع إنستافوركس.
قم بتحميل منصة التداول ميتاتريدر 4 وافتح أول صفقة.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    انضم إلى المسابقة
  • إيداع الحظ
    قم بإيداع 3,000 دولار في حسابك واحصل على $5,000 وأكثر من ذالك!
    في مارس نحن نقدم باليانصيب $5,000 ضمن حملة إيداع الحظ!
    احصل على فرصة للفوز من خلال إيداع 3,000 دولار في حساب تداول. بعد أن استوفيت هذا الشرط، تصبح مشاركًا في الحملة.
    انضم إلى المسابقة
  • تداول بحكمة، اربح جهازا
    قم بتعبئة حسابك بمبلغ لا يقل عن 500 دولار ، واشترك في المسابقة ، واحصل على فرصة للفوز بأجهزة الجوال.
    انضم إلى المسابقة
  • بونص 100٪
    فرصتك الفريدة للحصول على بونص 100٪ على إيداعك
    احصل على بونص
  • بونص 55٪
    تقدم بطلب للحصول على بونص 55٪ على كل إيداع
    احصل على بونص
  • بونص 30٪
    احصل على بونص 30٪ في كل مرة تقوم فيها بتعبئة حسابك
    احصل على بونص

المقالات الموصى بها

لا تستطيع التحدث الآن؟
اطرح سؤالك في الدردشة.
Widget callback