To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

In the first half of the day, absolutely nothing happened, and this is the probability I drew in my morning forecast. However, sellers were able to please the resulting entry point into short positions, which we will now analyze with you. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see that after an unsuccessful attempt to grow above the resistance of 1.1865, the bears returned the market to their control, which led to a rapid decline of the pair to the support area of 1.1826, allowing them to take about 40 points of profit from the market. It was not possible to wait for the formation of a buy signal from the 1.1826 level, so the technical picture in EUR/USD did not change. The main task of the bulls is to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1865, which forms a new signal for entering the market in long positions. However, you need to understand that in the second half of the day, no important fundamental statistics are planned, which will limit the upward potential of the pair. If the resistance breaks 1.1865, the next target of the bulls will be a maximum of 1.1912, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the scenario of a decline in EUR/USD after an unsuccessful attempt to grow, it is best to postpone long positions until the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.1826, to which the bears did not quite reach the pair. It is possible to buy the euro immediately on a rebound only from the minimum of 1.1784, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

The sellers' task for the second half of the day remains the same - to protect the resistance of 1.1865. Only the formation of another false breakout in it will allow us to further bring down the aggressive upward potential of the European currency at the beginning of this week. An unsuccessful breakout and return to the 1.1865 level will be a signal to open short positions. However, the more important task of the bears in the second half of the day is to break through and consolidate below the support of 1.1826, which will open a direct road to the minimum of 1.1784 and 1.1746, where I recommend fixing the profits. In case of further growth of EUR/USD according to the trend formed on August 12, it is best to open short positions on a rebound from the resistance of 1.1912 in the expectation of a correction of 30-40 points within the day. Given that the release of important fundamental statistics at the beginning of the week is not planned, it is better not to rush with sales, and open them only from really large levels of resistance.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is just above the 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates a continuation of the bull market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

If the pair falls in the second half of the day, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.1826, the break of which will increase pressure on the euro.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.