To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.1784 and recommended that you make entry decisions from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. It is visible how the bears are defending this area with all their might after the breakdown of 1.1784. However, this does not lead to a major fall in the European currency - a move down by 12 points and a reversal. After the return of 1.1784 under their control, they were trying to protect it, which led to the formation of a signal to buy the euro, but even then, the growth by 15 points and everything stopped again. For the second half of the day, the technical picture in the pair changed.

The data on German producer prices were not surprising, so the market reaction to them was appropriate – none. The second half of the day also promises to be relatively calm since important fundamental statistics are not published. The bulls will have to fight for a new middle of the channel, which is the level of 1.1801. A break and consolidation above this range with a reverse test of it from top to bottom forms a signal to open long positions to restore the euro to the upper limit of 1.1825. The longer-term goal will be this week's maximum of 1.1849, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the US data seriously surprises the market, then a return of pressure on EUR/USD during the US session is not excluded. In this case, the optimal scenario will be forming a false breakdown in the area of 1.1773, which was formed today in the first half of the day. I recommend buying the pair immediately for a rebound only from a larger minimum of 1.1740, counting on a reverse upward movement of 15-20 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Like yesterday, the bears tried to regain control of the market. However, it did not work out very well again. Only a breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.1773 will leave control on their side. However, it is possible to open short positions only after a reverse test of this level from the bottom up. In this case, we can count on a further fall of EUR/USD to the support area of 1.1740. A more distant target will be the area of 1.1715. However, it is unlikely that such serious movements will occur in the pair before the meeting of the European Central Bank. If EUR/USD rises during the US session, sellers will focus their attention on the resistance of 1.1801. The formation of a false breakout will be a signal to open short positions. If there is no bear activity in this area, it is best to postpone sales until the test of a larger level of 1.1825. However, it is also possible to sell a pair there only if a false breakdown is formed. I recommend opening short positions immediately for a rebound only from the resistance of 1.1849, calculating a downward correction of 15-20 points.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for July 13, there was a market bias towards sellers of risky assets. And although the long positions have not changed in any way, the sharp growth of short positions has led to another reduction in the overall positive net position. The fact that American inflation continues to grow indicates the seriousness of the situation. And no matter how the central bank tries to convince investors that this is just a temporary phenomenon, the market continues to abandon risky assets favoring safe-haven assets, which is the US dollar. This week, the picture can only get worse, as the European Central Bank will hold a meeting on Thursday. Politicians will announce a new mandate regarding the long-term rate of inflation in the eurozone, which may lead to a revision of plans for monetary policy in the near future. It will be a certain shock for the euro, and it isn't easy to guess what the market reaction will be. But the lower the euro falls, the higher the demand for it will be in the medium term since the attractiveness of risky assets has not gone away. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions remained virtually unchanged and decreased from the level of 212,998 to the level of 212,851.

In contrast, short non-commercial positions increased from the level of 135,808 to the level of 153,138. In addition to the decision of the European Central Bank, we are only waiting for interesting fundamental statistics on the activity of the service sector and the manufacturing sector of the eurozone countries, which can affect the direction of the euro in the short term. The total non-commercial net position decreased from the level of 77,190 to the level of 59,713. The weekly closing price remained unchanged at 1.1862.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1805 will lead to a new wave of euro growth.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.