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18.08.2022 09:51 AM
Analysis and trading tips for GBP/USD on August 18

Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

The test of 1.2096 took place at the time when the MACD was far from zero, which limited the downside potential of the pair. Some time later, another test happened, but this time the MACD line started to move below zero, which was a good signal to sell. It prompted at least 40 pips of price decrease. Buying at 1.2051 also worked well as the pair bounced up by more than 30 pips. No other signals appeared for the rest of the day.

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CPI in the UK rose above 10.0%, but fell short of estimates. It amounted to 10.2%, just slightly lower than the 13.0% expected by the Bank of England. For this reason, the outlook for pound became rather bleak, so it would be better to sell further along the medium-term bearish trend.

There are no important reports scheduled to be released in the UK today, so markets will focus on the upcoming data on US jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and existing home sales. These indicators will most likely be negative, which will harm risky assets. Speeches by FOMC members Esther George and Neel Kashkari will also attract some interest as they will express their position on future monetary policy plans.

For long positions:

Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.2056 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2121 (thicker green line on the chart). However, there is little chance for a rally today, especially since the pair is on the verge of resuming the bear market.

Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.2012, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2056 and 1.2121.

For short positions:

Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.2012 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1945. Pressure could return at any moment because nothing positive is happening to the UK economy

Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.2056, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2012 and 1.1945.

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What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the GBP/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the GBP/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
ইন্সটাফরেক্সের বিশ্লেষণ বিশেষজ্ঞ
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