04.03.2024 05:12 PM
EUR/USD. Analysis for March 4th. The market awaits the ECB meeting

The wave analysis of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. Over the past year, we have seen only three wave structures that constantly alternate with each other. At the moment, the construction of another three-wave structure is ongoing – a downward one that began on July 18 of the previous year. The presumed wave 1 is complete, wave 2 or b has been complicated three or four times, but at the moment, it is also complete, as the decline in the pair has been continuing for over a month.

The upward segment of the trend may still resume, but its internal structure will be unreadable in this case. I remind you that I try to highlight unambiguous wave structures that do not tolerate dual interpretations. If the current wave analysis is correct, then the market has moved on to the formation of wave 3 or c. At the moment, presumably, wave 2 in 3 or c is being constructed. If this is indeed the case, then an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci level may indicate the completion of this wave. In any case, the decline in the quotes of the pair should not be completed at this point. Alternatively, the wave analysis may become noticeably more complicated.

The market is not in a hurry to make decisions.

The exchange rate of the EUR/USD pair did not change on Monday. The American session usually proceeds more actively than the European one, but today there is no news background, so I do not expect high-amplitude movements by the end of the day. It has been quite difficult to expect high-amplitude movements in general lately. The pair has been trading between Fibonacci levels of 61.8% and 76.4% for almost two weeks, as long as the market sees no reason to leave this range. However, it should be acknowledged that reasons may arise this week.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce the results of the second meeting this year. Although interest rates will undoubtedly remain unchanged, Christine Lagarde may make statements that will help determine when monetary policy will begin to ease in the future. I am interested in the ECB's reaction to the latest inflation report. Last Friday, it became known about the slowdown in the main indicator to 2.6%. If, according to Christine Lagarde or the entire Governing Council, this is enough to start easing and this information is announced, then the demand for the euro may start to decline again.

And the wave analysis suggests a further decline in the euro. However, at the same time, the market has already almost 100% determined its expectations for rates. Now the general opinion is for the first rate cut in June (just like the Fed). If Christine Lagarde does not make statements that will force the market to shift these deadlines, the reaction may be very weak. There will be other important events this week. I expect that at least some of them will take the market out of a passive state.

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General conclusions.

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the construction of a bearish set of waves continues. Wave 2 or b has taken a completed form, so soon I expect the continuation of the construction of an impulsive descending wave 3 or c with a significant decline in the pair. Currently, an internal corrective wave is being built, which may have already been completed. I continue to consider only sales with targets near the calculated level of 1.0462, which corresponds to 127.2% Fibonacci.

On a larger wave scale, it can be seen that the presumed wave 2 or b, which in length exceeded 61.8% Fibonacci from the first wave, may be completed. If this is indeed the case, then the scenario of building wave 3 or c and lowering the pair below the 4th figure has begun to be implemented.

Chin Zhao,
ইন্সটাফরেক্সের বিশ্লেষণ বিশেষজ্ঞ
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