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27.07.2022 03:53 PM
英镑/美元对概览。 7 月 27 日,Rishi Sunak 和 Liz Truss 举行了一场选举辩论。特拉斯赢了。

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英镑/美元货币对也在周二开始暴跌。然而,这只是乍一看。回想一下,欧元和英镑最近表现出几乎相同的走势;因此,我们对周二两对的单向走势并不感到震惊。应该指出的是,周二在美国、英国或欧盟都没有重大的宏观经济统计数据或基本面事件。也就是说,交易者在白天没有任何反应。
尽管如此,美元已经再次开始扩张,我们将这一走势与一个事件联系起来——美联储会议将于今晚结束。很像欧元,英镑很长一段时间都无法正常调整。这仅仅意味着根本没有对英国货币的需求。如果是这样,则该货币对已经超过了修正计划,并有望创下新低。就英镑而言,我们仍在讨论仅更新 2 年低点。然而,我们记得我们考虑了一个非常真实的目标 1.1400,它是至少过去 30 年该货币对的绝对最小值。
目前除了基础和地缘政治没有其他考虑因素。如果英国的政治危机至少对市场产生了一些影响,那么至少在过去两周内,英镑的走势与欧元货币略有不同。因此,新总理的选举是一个重要而有趣的话题,但仅此而已。我们已经说过,政府更迭的影响(毕竟不仅总理会改变,许多部委和许多其他高级职位也会改变)将是长期的。想到的最平凡的事情是,如果 Rishi Sunak 上台,经济状况会有所改善,如果 Liz
Truss 掌权,地缘政治会发生变化。苏纳克是一位骨子里的经济学家,也许他的建议不太受欢迎,但从长远来看,它们可以带来必要的结果。特拉斯是一位颇受欢迎的政治家,鉴于她的服务性质(外交部长),她了解世界政治和地缘政治。因此,该国发展的外部载体对她有利。
新首相的选举结果会如何?
原则上,从第一轮初选开始,我们就说过最后一轮的投票结果可能会让很多人感到意外。我们说过 Liz Truss 和 Rishi Sunak 很可能会进入最后一轮。尽管对 Penny
Mordaunt 表示尊重,但她的名字并不像前两位英国官员的名字那么有名。在这种情况下,一个得到选民支持的民众必须成为党的领导人和政府。议会选举的结果将取决于英国的投票地点,而不是保守党。
在鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)执政时期,保守党的收视率只降不降,如今工党倒吸一口凉气,在"脱欧"议会选举中遭遇耻辱性挫折。然后,我们记得,英国人根据"美国原则"投票支持约翰逊。约翰逊提出了与欧盟断绝关系的明确战略,英国人只是厌倦了这部名为"脱欧"的肥皂剧。因此,选票交给了保守党,以便他们可以不受干扰地实施脱离欧盟。然而,三年后,很明显英国脱欧几乎是约翰逊的唯一优点。但他的参与问题太多,以至于他无法继续担任总理。现在保守党迫切需要重建与英国人的信任。因此,他们的领导者首先应该是受民众欢迎的人。但保守党自己应该选举他。 Rishi Sunak 是高税收的拥护者,不太适合这个职位。但Liz Truss在她的竞选声明中明确表示,她打算减税(提供了英国的支持)。在乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突中,她将坚定地支持乌克兰(这也很重要,因为整个欧洲都有兴趣完成它)(这也很重要,因为整个欧洲都有兴趣完成它)。据许多专家称,苏纳克和特拉斯之间的选举前辩论以第二人获胜而告终。到目前为止,一切都将确保获胜的是利兹。

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过去
5 个交易日英镑/美元对的平均波动率为
120 点。对于英镑/美元对,这个值是"高"的。因此,在 7 月 27 日星期三,我们预测通道内的活动受到
1.1910 和
1.2151 水平的限制。
Heiken Ashi 指标的反转走高将意味着可能恢复上行轨迹。
最近的支撑位:
S1 – 1.2024
S2 – 1.1963
S3 – 1.1902
最近的阻力位:
R1 – 1.2085
R2 – 1.2146
R3 – 1.2207
交易建议:
英镑/美元对继续位于 4 小时时间范围内的移动平均线上方。因此,如果价格从移动平均线反弹,目前应该将新的买单设定为
1.2085 和
1.2146 的目标。当锚定在移动平均线下方时,应开设卖单,目标为
1.1902 和
1.1841。
插图说明:
线性回归通道——帮助确定当前趋势。如果两者都指向同一个方向,那么目前趋势很强。
移动平均线(设置
20.0,平滑)——确定短期趋势和当前交易的方向。
默里水平是移动和修正的目标水平。
波动率水平(红线)表示根据当前波动率指标,该货币对将在第二天花费的预期价格通道。
CCI 指标 –
进入超卖区域(低于
-250)或进入超买区域(高于
+250)意味着即将出现相反方向的趋势反转。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2023
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