25.11.202507:15:45UTC+00South Africa Leading Index Drops in September

In September 2025, South Africa's composite leading business cycle indicator decreased by 1.2% month-over-month, reversing a 1.6% increase observed in August. This marked the first decline since May, and the most significant drop since December 2024, as reductions in four out of the seven available component time series outweighed gains in the other three. The most substantial negative impacts were due to a decline in the number of residential building plans approved and a slowdown in the six-month smoothed growth rate of new passenger vehicle sales. On the positive side, contributing factors included a rise in South Africa's export commodity price index, measured in US dollars, and an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate of real M1 money supply. Simultaneously, the composite coincident indicator increased marginally by 0.1% in August, driven by gains in the industrial production index and the real value of wholesale, retail, and motor trade sales. Conversely, the lagging indicator saw a decrease of 0.9% in August.