EUR/JPY has failed to stay above support at 124.83, which does question our previous assumption that wave ii had completed. As long as support at 124.15 holds firm, it's still a possibility that wave iii is developing, but the odds for wave ii still being in motion has increased significantly and a second decline closer to 123.77 and likely even closer to 123.20 is now much more likely.

Only a direct break back above resistance at 124.46 will confirm that wave iii is unfolding and a rally higher to 125.95 and 129.48 is well under way.

R3: 125.54

R2: 125.09

R1: 124.74

Pivot: 124.37

S1: 124.15

S2: 123.77

S3: 123.20

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 124.65 with our stop placed at 124.15