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09.11.2012 11:29 AM
USD/JPY: Under Pressure

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Overview:
USD/JPY is consolidating with bearish bias after hitting seven-day low of 79.32 on Thursday. The rate is undermined by selling of yen crosses amid negative risk sentiment (S&P fell 1.22% overnight) as fears mount over U.S. politicians' ability to strike a budget deal to avoid the looming U.S. "fiscal cliff" and negative news out of the eurozone. USD/JPY is also weighed by lower U.S. Treasury yields; Japan exporter sales. But USD sentiment boosted by surprise contraction in U.S. trade deficit to $41.55 billion in September, its lowest level since end of 2010, from a downwardly revised $D43.79 billion the month before (vs. forecast for increase to $45.0 billion). USD/JPY losses also tempered by demand from Japan importers; positions adjustment before U.S. long weekend (U.S. markets shut for Veterans' Day holiday Monday). Yen crosses are vulnerable to 01:30 GMT China October CPI, PPI, and 05:30 GMT China October retail sales, industrial output, fixed assets investment data. Focus is also on once-a-decade transition of power in China as China Communist Party Congress continues.
Preference:
Sell below 79.8 with 79.25 and 79.1 as next targets.
Support Levels:
S1 - 79.27 (Oct. 30 reaction low)
S2 - 79.10 (Oct. 19 low)
S3 - 78.84 (100-day moving average) 
Alternative scenario:
Buy above 79.8. The upside penetration of 79.8 will call for 80.1 and 80.3.
Resistance Levels:
R1 - 80.03 (Thursday's high)
R2 - 80.3
R3 - 80.41-80.45 (Wednesday's high-Tuesday's high)
Technical Comment:

The pair is rebounding but stands below its resistance. USD/JPY daily chart is negative-biased as stochastics is falling from overbought; MACD staged bearish crossover against its exponential moving average; bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit at 79.36 on Thursday.

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