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12.11.2012 04:19 PM
USD/JPY Intraday: Resistance at 79.6

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Overview:
USD/JPY is consolidating after hitting three-week low of 79.07 on Friday. It is likely that liquidity is thin due to U.S. Veterans' Day holiday. Spotlight should be turned on 23:50 GMT Japan 3Q 1st preliminary quarterly GDP estimates. USD/JPY is underpinned by improved USD sentiment after bigger-than-expected rise in University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to five-year high of 84.9 in early November (vs. 83.0 forecast) from October's 82.6. USD/JPY is also supported by demand from Japan importers. But USD/JPY upside is limited by Japan exporter sales; subdued investor risk appetite on worries over U.S. "fiscal cliff" and economic slowdown in the euro zone, although sentiment soothed by weekend data - China exports increased 11.6% (vs. +10.0% forecast) in October to push its trade surplus to near-four-year high of $31.99 billion (vs. $27.0 billion forecast).
Preference:
Sell below 79.6 with targets  79.3 and 79 in extension.
Support Levels: 
S1 - 79.3
S2 - 79.07 (Friday's low)
S3 - 78.84 (100-day moving average)  
Alternative scenario:
Buy above 79.6. Above 79.6 look for further upside with 79.8 and 80.1 as targets.
Resistance Levels:
R1 - 79.61 (Friday's high)
R2 - 80.03 (Thursday's high)
R3 - 80.41-80.45 (Wednesday's high-Tuesday's high)  
Technical Comment:
The pair stands below its resistance and should face further weakness. USD/JPY daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD & stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average staged bearish crossover against 15-day MA; although bullish doji hammer candlestick pattern was completed on Friday.

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