29.05.2019 09:02 AM
Overview of EUR/USD on May 29. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". The weakness of the euro is visible to the naked eye

4-hour timeframe

This image is no longer relevant

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -46.7675

The third trading day of the week promises to be as boring in terms of macroeconomic events and reports as the first two. On Wednesday, May 29, neither in the States nor in Europe is planned any important publication. Meanwhile, the euro currency is on the sly, but fixed back below the moving average line. Thus, the trend for the euro/dollar pair has changed to a downward one against the background of the complete absence of any fundamental information. This speaks, first of all, about the mood of traders. If even without disappointing European statistics or, on the contrary, positive from the US, the euro has been falling for three days in a row, then the mood among traders is definitely bearish. What can we expect from the pair in the future? If there is no loud and strong news that will support the European currency, the EUR/USD will slowly but surely continue to slide to annual lows. Despite the fact that the technical picture between April 26 and May 23 fits perfectly into the "double bottom" pattern, we believe that the chances of overcoming the lows from these dates are much greater than the formation of an uptrend. The EU, by the way, has a new problem, this time with Italy. Rome stubbornly refuses to reduce the size of its own national debt, which is 132% of GDP, which can force Brussels to impose a fine of 3.5 billion euros, as, according to EU rules, the amount of debt cannot exceed 60% of GDP. Such conflicts, which are clearly not out of the blue, may in the future lead to new Exits.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1139

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.1078

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1169

R2 – 1.1200

R3 – 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair is fixed below the moving average, which indicates the return of traders to the bearish trend. Thus, sales of the euro with targets at 1.1139 and 1.1108 have now become relevant again.

It is recommended to consider buy orders for the euro/dollar pair only after fixing the price above the moving average with targets at 1.1200 and 1.1230 small lots.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Paolo Greco,
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