ये भी देखें
From a comprehensive analysis, we see that for almost two weeks, the quote has been moving in a sideways corridor, with variable frames. And now about the details. The widest range of 1.2150-1.2480 (1.2500) is precisely at such scales that we have an oscillation within the boundaries of which local amplitudes are formed. In other words, there are characteristic cycles in the structure of which there are small-scale amplitudes on the sideways and subsequent impulses based on them. All this structure is not constant and is limited by the main range of 1.2150-1.2480 (1.2500). It turns out that in order for the main move to occur, the quote first needs to overcome the boundaries of the main range, otherwise we are waiting for a long and painful sideways move, as it was before the first downward inertia.
At the same time, the current oscillation has already grown from a slowdown at the peak of the upward inertia to a full-fledged sideways move, which means that the subsequent movement is expected to be more extensive than a correction or a local prostration.
Analyzing the last trading day, we see that the concentration of the price below the level of 1.2350 still did not lead to a significant downward move, and in the afternoon there was an upward turn that not only secured the quote above the level of 1.2350 but also overcame the mark of 1.2383.
It turns out that during the recent upward movement, the quote returned to the original range, which is where it all started.
In terms of volatility, we see a slight slowdown of 26% relative to the daily average. It is worth noting that on the scale of our corridor, this volatility is considered by no means small.
Details of volatility: Monday-165 points; Tuesday-245 points; Wednesday-172 points; Thursday-358 points; Friday-359 points; Monday-144 points; Tuesday-271 points; Wednesday-676 points; Thursday-354 points; Friday-522 points; Monday-267 points; Tuesday-296 points; Wednesday-333 points; Thursday-452 points; Friday-352 points; Monday-148 points; Tuesday-227 points; Wednesday-108 points; Thursday-126 points; Friday-198 points; Monday-116 points; Tuesday-217 points; Wednesday-131 points. The average daily indicator, relative to the dynamics of volatility, is 179 points (see the table of volatility at the end of the article).
As discussed in the previous review, traders considered fluctuations within the boundaries of 1.2280/1.2350 (1.2380), where local buy positions were eventually opened.
Looking at the trading chart in general terms (the daily period), we see two large-scale inertia moves, where a sideways move was formed at the top of the second inertia.
The news background of the last day did not contain any noteworthy statistics on Britain and the United States.
In terms of the general information background, the state of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who was recently transferred from self-isolation to the department of intensive theory, is actively discussed. The fact that the Prime Minister was diagnosed with coronavirus is no longer news, but the further acceleration of the case of infection with the virus among British citizens puts pressure on investors and the country's economy.
In turn, the European side, which is actively involved in negotiations on trade relations after Brexit, can no longer contain its emotions. So European officials believe that the British feed themselves the illusions of striving to conclude a deal before the end of this year. The current circumstances with the COVID-19 virus have complicated the negotiation process, where, according to the German Ambassador to the EU, Michiel Claus, the work is only at 25% of the total capacity.
Let me remind you that the European Commission has repeatedly offered to consider extending the transition period, but the British side is silent.
Next week, the heads of the British and EU Brexit negotiating teams, David Frost and Michel Barnier, are due to agree on a further schedule of negotiations. Barnier, who was diagnosed with a coronavirus on March 19, is already recovering.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have already received data for the UK, where indicators for industrial production continue to decline by -2.8%. In turn, the GDP data continued to show a slowdown from 0.7% to 0.3%
In the afternoon, we expect data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, where nothing good can be expected. The US labor market is experiencing one of the worst times, unemployment is growing weekly and this time forecasts say that the growth of initial applications will be 5,150,000, and repeated applications - 6,990,000. However, it is not excluded that the data will come out even worse than expected. Naturally, this is a bad factor for the US economy, but investors understand that the consequences of the COVID-19 virus will affect other countries, and it is now in a protective asset more acceptable, with a general risk.
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quote has already moved closer to the area of interaction of trading forces 1.2440/1.2480, where there were a slowdown and signs of a rebound. In fact, traders assume that a repeat of the story of the past is possible in the current segment, where there will be a round of short positions and a return of the price to the lower limit of the main range.
In terms of the emotional background, we see constant speculative interest, which makes it possible to accelerate the quote above the 100-point mark every day.
We can assume that the area of interaction of trading forces 1.2440/1.2480 will be able to exert proper pressure, during which the quote will be able to fall in the direction of values 1.2350-1.2320. The subsequent development will hang, from the set course, as there is a place to go down.
Based on the above information, we will output trading recommendations:
- Positions for sale are considered in the direction of 1.2350-1.2320.
- Buy positions are considered as a sharp change in the mood, where the quote needs to be fixed higher than the level of 1.2500.
Analyzing different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that due to the return of the price to the upper limit of the main range, the indicators of technical instruments on the hourly and daily periods have taken an upward position. In turn, minute intervals work for the primary rebound, signaling a sale.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year.
Volatility measurement reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(April 9 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 86 points, which is 51% lower than the daily average. It is possible to assume that the speculative mood will still be able to disperse the quote but within the average norm.
Resistance zones: 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2725*; 1.2770**; 1.2885*; 1.3000; 1.3170**; 1.3300**; 1.3600; 1.3850; 1.4000***; 1.4350**.
Support zones: 1.2350**; 1.2280 (1.2240); 1.2150**; 1.2000*** (1.1957); 1.1850; 1.1660; 1.1450 (1.1411); 1.1300; 1.1000; 1.0800; 1.0500; 1.0000.
* Periodic level
** Range level
*** Psychological level
*यहां पर लिखा गया बाजार विश्लेषण आपकी जागरूकता बढ़ाने के लिए किया है, लेकिन व्यापार करने के लिए निर्देश देने के लिए नहीं |
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