EUR/USD

Yesterday's decline in the euro by 37 points is quite justified: industrial orders in Germany in May showed a contraction of -3.7%, the index of business sentiment in the eurozone ZEW in July fell from 81.3 to 61.2 points. The US ISM Services PMI dropped from 64.0 to 60.1 last month, but this moderate negative was smoothed out by the expectation of hawkish tone of today's minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting.

The emerging convergence of the price with the Marlin oscillator has not disappeared on the daily chart, it is only forming in a slightly different form. In the event of further dollar-friendly news, convergence may completely dissolve into the noise of a downward trend. To do this, the price must settle below yesterday's low.

The price has settled under the MACD line on the four-hour scale, but here, too, the price converges with the oscillator. However, as in the daily half, consolidating below yesterday's low at 1.1807 can help us overcome this technical turning point, as convergence is weak - the lows of July 6 and 2 are almost at the same level.

So, our main scenario is a decline to the target level of 1.1705. It will be broken when the price returns to the area above the target level of 1.1855.