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26.06.2013 10:21 AM
Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 26, 2013

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Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.7055

R2: 1.70606

R1: 1.6960

Current Spot: 1.6917

S1: 1.6913

S2: 1.6846

S3: 1.6825 (Top of red wave i)

Technical overview:

We saw a new attempt to break above short-term resistance at 1.7006 yesterday, but it failed and that turned us down towards strong support at 1.6825. The support at 1.6825 marks the top of red wave i of black wave v and should not be broken, as that would leave us with an overlap between red wave i and red wave iv, which is not allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle. Therefore, we continue to expect, that support at 1.6825 will continue to protect the downside for a break above resistance at 1.6960 and, more importantly, a break above 1.7006, which should open up the upside for the final rally higher. As both red wave i and red wave iii are almost equal in length it is entirely possible that red wave v will be the extended wave. An extension in red wave v will equal the distance traveled from the bottom of red wave i at 1.6388 to the top of red wave iii at 1.7111 and will give us a possible red wave v target near 1.7550. That said we will have to stay alert for the signs of a possible top as all requirements for an impulsive rally since the 1.5080 low has been fulfilled.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6860 was taken out for a nice profit. However, we will like to be on-board if red wave v extends. Therefore, we will buy EUR again upon a break above 1.6960 with stop at 1.6820.

Torben Melsted,
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