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19.09.2022 07:47 AM
Breaking forecast for GBP/USD on September 19, 2022

Although the market is focusing on the FOMC meeting, it still can't ignore macro data. The United Kingdom saw its retail sales decrease by 5.4% in August, worse than market expectations of a 4.2% drop. The country is rapidly sliding into a recession. The pound extends the bear run.

United Kingdom Retail Sales:

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Today will be a calm day in the market due to a completely empty macroeconomic calendar. With the FOMC meeting looming – it is scheduled for Wednesday – the market is likely to trade sideways for a few days if nothing extraordinary happens, of course.

GBP/USD hit its swing low on Friday and then fell to the 1985 levels. The overheating of short positions triggered a technical correction of about 90 pips.

The Relative Strength Index crossed the oversold line of 30 to the upside on the 4-hour chart, signaling the overheating of short positions. A technical correction occurred. On the daily chart, the indicator is moving between 30 and 50, reflecting a strong bearish bias.

There is no crossover of the Alligator's moving averages (MA) on the 4-hour chart. On the daily chart, the Alligator shows the downtrend. Its MAs are not interlaced.

In the daily time frame, the bear trend is getting deeper.

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Outlook

Despite the correction, the pound sterling is still overbought. In this light, if the quote goes above 1.1450, GBP will recover.

At the same time, a sideways movement began when the price reached the swing low. Therefore, speculators may well ignore all the technical signals that are now coming. In such a case, the volume of short positions could increase if the pair consolidates below 1.1350.

As for complex indicator analysis, there is a buy signal for short-term trading. Indicators also signal the downtrend in the medium term and intraday.

Dean Leo,
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