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26.07.2013 12:15 PM
Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 26, 2013

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Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6525

R2: 1.6487

R1: 1.6460

Current Spot: 1.6411

S1: 1.6393

S2: 1.6349

S3: 1.6339

Technical overview:

As we broke below important support at 1.6475 and even more important support at 1.6427 we have been forced to change our count. Our preferred count is now that wave ii is still in motion from the 1.6798 high. As we already is way past the 61.8% corrective target we will be looking for support at Harmonic support at 70.7% (Gann target), which comes in at 1.6393 and again at the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 1.6349. However, it should be remembered, that second waves are allowed to correct 100% of the first wave, but it can never ever break below the start of the first wave, which in this case will be below 1.6225. However, we doubt that this wave ii correction will be that deep. That said, we will be looking for a possible bottom at 1.6393 for a break above 1.6487, which will be the first indication, that wave ii could be over. However, we will need a break above 1.6686 to confirm the bottom for a continuation higher towards 1.6798 and higher in wave iii.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6420 was taken out, but we will re-buy EUR here at 1.6411 with a stop at 1.6220. If you want to wait for a more conservative signal, then buy EUR upon a break above 1.6487 with the same stop at 1.6220.

Torben Melsted,
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