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15.03.2023 08:34 AM
Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on March 15

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD

When the pair tested 1.0690, the MACD line was already far from zero, so the downside potential was limited. Similarly, the upside potential was also limited during the afternoon as the test of 1.0715 happened when the MACD line was far from zero as well.

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Although the data on industrial production in Italy and CPI in Spain did not impress traders, euro rose slightly because the latest US inflation report matched forecasts. This prevented EUR/USD from breaking out of the sideways channel.

This Wednesday morning, the eurozone is scheduled to release its industrial production data for January, followed by Italy's quarterly unemployment rate report and France's latest CPI report. All three will have little to no effect on the market. In the afternoon, the US will publish its February data on retail sales, which will most likely give the Federal Reserve the final say on how to deal with the committee's meeting later this month. There will also be data on the producer price index and the Empire Manufacturing index, but it will be of little importance. Even so, dollar will be on a more stronger position than euro today.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0755 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0798. Growth is possible, but it will only be after a rise to the monthly highs. Nevertheless, make sure that when buying, the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 1.0715, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0755 and 1.0798.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0715 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0659. Pressure will return if the upcoming US data exceed expectations. However, when selling, make sure that the MACD line is under zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0755, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0715 and 1.0659.

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What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
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