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30.03.2023 05:13 AM
Forecast for EUR/USD on March 30, 2023

The euro finally stopped "playing risk" and fell at the end of Wednesday, while the S&P 500 gained 1.42%. Perhaps, it was the effect of increasing yields of U.S. government bonds, rising for the 4th day. The dollar strengthened even as market expectations for a quarter-point Fed rate cut at the May meeting had increased from 57.5% to 60.7%. Market participants were worried about recession, despite the optimistic rhetoric of the officials. Investors are especially curious about Europe, with CPI for Germany and unemployment data for Italy due out today, which is expected to rise from 7.9% to 8.0%. The final U.S. GDP estimate for Q4 is expected to be released and is forecast to remain unchanged at 2.7%.

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On the daily chart, EUR turned down from the MACD line. If the price returns to the target range of 1.0758/87, all the previous growth of the last three days (on the growth of interest in risk) may be in vain.

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On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator continues to move sideways, but with a downward slope. The price lies on the balance indicator line, probably preparing for an attack on the MACD line. The price needs to consolidate below this line, so overcoming the range of 1.0758/87 will automatically mean overcoming the support of this indicator line. Then the price will move towards the target support at 1.0660.

Consolidating above the signal level of 1.0863 will push the price to 1.0912.

Laurie Bailey,
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