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21.09.2023 08:13 AM
Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 21, 2023

Crypto Industry News:

The Federal Reserve (Fed), the US central bank, announced its decision on interest rates yesterday. There were no surprises. The monetary authorities left interest rates unchanged. What does this mean for the cryptocurrency market?

A moment before the announcement of the Fed's decision, data from the FedWatch tool showed that as many as 99% of the market expected neither an increase nor a cut in interest rates in the USA. And so it happened: the federal funds rate range remained at 5.25-5.50%.

Jerome Powell and his colleagues seem to want to start lowering interest rates only when inflation drops to 2%. This may take a few more months.

"Looking ahead, we are in a position to be cautious about whether and what scale of additional monetary tightening may be appropriate," the chairman of the Federal Reserve said during a news conference.

He added that "the process of bringing inflation permanently to 2%" may take a long time. Of course, he did not specify how many weeks or months mean "long" in his language.

Let us add that the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, i.e. the body that makes decisions regarding interest rates is scheduled for the turn of October and November. New data from FedWatch shows that the majority of the market does not expect a hike then (66.5%). Only 33.5% expect that officials will then raise interest rates by 25 basis points.

The bitcoin price also remained stable. Today, 1 BTC costs just over USD 27,000. Over the course of a 24-hour period, the price hardly moved, although it increased by 3% during the week. The fear and greed index also does not change. It still indicates market indifference (level 47).

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $27,464 and then reversed lower after the extremely oversold market conditions were hit on the H4 time frame chart. The bulls had bounced from the technical support located at the level of $26,691 and are ready to move even higher. The market still trades above the short-term trend line support as well and did not move much after the FED interest rate decision. The momentum is strong and positive on the H4 time frame chart, so the bulls are temporary in charge of the market. The technical support is seen at the level of $25,000 and the intraday technical resistance is seen at the level of $27,464.

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Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $27,226

WR2 - $26,918

WR1 - $26,783

Weekly Pivot - $26,570

WS1 - $26,435

WS2 - $26,222

WS3 - $25,875

Trading Outlook:

The bulls broken above the gamechanging level located at $25,442, so now the mid-term outlook for BTC is bullish. The last pull-back has reached the 38% Fibonacci retracement and the market is ready to continue the up move. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $32,350. As long as the level of 19,572 is not clearly violated, there is a chance for a long-term up trend to continue.

Sebastian Seliga,
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