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29.09.2023 08:01 AM
USD/JPY: up channel confirmed

The USD/JPY pair is moving sideways in the short term and is located at 149.34 at the time of writing. The price action signaled exhausted buyers, but a corrective phase is still far from being confirmed. The price is ranging as the Dollar Index and Yen Futures crashed, weakening both currencies.

The USD lost ground versus its rivals as the Final GDP, Pending Home Sales, and Final GDP Price Index came in worse than expected. Today, the Japanese data came in mixed. The Tokyo Core CPI, Unemployment Rate, Consumer Confidence, and Housing Starts disappointed, while Retail Sales and Prelim Industrial Production reported positive data.

Later, the US data could be decisive. The Core PCE Price Index and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment represent high-impact events. Only positive data could save the USD from the downside.

USD/JPY Leg Down?

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Technically, USD/JPY stabilized below the uptrend line and now it could develop a sell-off. It has retested the 149.49 former high but it has failed to close near it signaling strong selling pressure.

The weekly R2 (149.18) represents a key downside obstacle. It remains to see how it reacts around it. As long as it stays above it, the rate could resume its growth.

USD/JPY Forecast!

A bearish closure below the former low of 149.14 activates more declines. This is seen as a short opportunity.

Ralph Shedler,
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