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29.02.2024 01:38 PM
Analysis and trading tips for USD/JPY on February 29 (US session)

Analysis of transactions and trading tips on USD/JPY

Further decline became limited because the test of 149.65 coincided with the sharp drop of the MACD line from zero.

Ahead lies data on personal consumption expenditure, household spending, income level, jobless claims, Chicago PMI, and pending home sales in the US. Positive statistics will lead to a rise in dollar demand and a decline in yen. Statements from FOMC members Raphael Bostic and Loretta Mester could also fuel further growth in USD.

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For long positions:

Buy when the price hits 150.25 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 150.65. Growth will occur after very strong statistics from the US and a firm stance from Fed representatives.

When buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it. Also consider buying USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 149.88, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 150.25 and 150.65.

For short positions:

Sell when the price reaches 149.88 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 149.41. Pressure will return in the case of weak data from the US.

When selling, ensure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it. Also consider selling USD/JPY after two consecutive price tests of 150.25, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 149.88 and 149.41.

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What's on the chart:

Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy USD/JPY

Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell USD/JPY

Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
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