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22.11.2011 12:32 PM
AUD/USD Noughs and Crosses analysis for November 22, 2011

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Previously, around the price zone of 1.6780-1.6800, a Double Top pattern scenario was established during February and March.

Daily fixation below 1.6600 (reversal pattern neckline) exposed price level 1.6530 (50% Fibonacci) that enabled the pair to hit the full projection target at 1.6464 (61.8% Fibonacci).

The recent lows at 1.6465 as well as 1.6555 (corresponding to the depicted uptrend line) prevented further bearish decline and provided enough buying pressure to keep fixing above 1.6630-1.6666 (corresponding to a prominent top established on January 24).

As long as the ascending bottom established at the uptrend around 1.6555 remains intact, the bulls will be consolidating around 1.6780-1.6800.

The nearest demand zone to meet the pair is located at 1.6660-1.6675. It's the most recently established top on the current bullish swing.

A bearish pull-back towards 1.6660 -1.6675 was considered for buying. This position is running in profits now (+150 pips).

As long as 1.6666 (most recent bottom) remains defended by the bulls, our long position remains valid. However, it is risky to take new long positions at these high levels so partial profits taking should be executed.

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The 4H chart reveals more significance of the demand zone around the recently broken top mentioned above in the daily chart.

This demand zone corresponds to 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels which is a critical demand zone for the ongoing bullish swing which offered a valid BUY entry on the recent bearish pull-back as expected.

Stop loss should be advanced to 1.6680 to offset the risk of this profitable position and price action should be watched around 1.6820 for a possible bullish breakout.

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