Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the price level at 159.89 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly upwards from the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Yesterday, interest in the US dollar renewed due to reports of ongoing confrontations between the United States and Iran in the Middle East. The escalation of the geopolitical situation traditionally stimulates demand for the dollar, as investors prefer to invest in more reliable assets. The strengthening of the American currency against the yen was also supported by encouraging data on business activity in the US services sector. The ISM index, rising to 54.5, surpassed analysts' forecasts and indicated the continued viability of the US economy despite international challenges.

Today, during Asian trading, the Bank of Japan attempted to respond with currency interventions to strengthen the yen, but it did not achieve any significant improvement. It appears that much more substantial intervention is required, which we will wait for in the near future, so there is no rush to buy dollars at current levels.

For the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches around 159.95 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 160.18 (the thicker green line on the chart). At 160.18, I intend to exit my long positions and sell back in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips back from that level). It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.78 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposing levels of 159.95 and 160.18.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks below 159.78 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.49, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). Sellers could return at any moment; any hint from the central bank could trigger this. Important! Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.95 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 159.78 and 159.49.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.