Bitcoin and Ethereum saw slight increases yesterday following the US inflation data. However, Bitcoin is still trading below $63,000, while Ethereum cannot seem to establish itself above $1,650.

Meanwhile, outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continue for the seventeenth consecutive day — a drop of $77.4 million yesterday and a decrease of $40.9 million from Ethereum ETFs. Among altcoins, only XRP (+$7.4 million) and SOL (+$749,000) showed any slight movement; everything else is at zero. Total outflows since mid-May have already exceeded $5.4 billion, and yesterday continued this trend. However, there appears to be an interesting contradiction in the data: despite ongoing institutional pressure, Bitcoin has not dropped for a week. Seventeen red days in ETFs, and yet the price remains stable. This atypical behavior deserves attention.

A more telling comparison can be made with the stock market. Bitcoin has held up significantly better than the S&P 500 over the past week, even as the S&P 500 faces its own pressures amid inflationary turbulence — the CPI data for May showed a year-over-year rate of 4.2%, the highest since April 2023. Rising inflation is typically a negative factor for risk assets; however, Bitcoin does not follow its usual correlation with the Nasdaq this time. Possible explanations include major long-term buyers quietly absorbing selling pressure, preventing the price from declining.

The resolution may come from several fronts simultaneously. The Federal Reserve meeting on June 16-17 under new Chairman Kevin Warsh will signal to the market the future of monetary policy — and if the central bank takes a tough stance, pressure on risk assets will intensify.

Bitcoin

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $63,000 with a target growth to the level of $64,300. Near $64,300, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately for a pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be purchased from the lower boundary of $62,400 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above it, targeting levels $63,300 and $64,300.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today after reaching an entry point around $62,400, targeting a drop to $61,300. Near $61,300, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately for a pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be sold from the upper boundary of $63,000 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above, targeting levels $62,400 and $61,200.

Ethereum

Buying Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today at an entry point around $1,662, targeting $1,688. Near $1,688, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately for a pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be bought from the lower boundary of $1,641 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above it, targeting levels $1,662 and $1,688.

Selling Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today at an entry point around $1,641, targeting a drop to $1,615. Near $1,615, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately for a pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be sold from the upper boundary of $1,662 if there is no market reaction to a breakout above, targeting levels $1,641 and $1,615.