Today, gold holds near $4,000 per ounce as traders prepare for tomorrow's Federal Reserve decision, which is expected to keep rates on hold. Spot gold is down about 0.2% at $4,007.25 after a 0.5% gain in the prior session. Silver fell 1.2% to $53.30, and platinum and palladium are also lower.

The external backdrop for metals is generally softer than last week. Oil has eased for a second day as a new round of diplomatic efforts restored some hope of averting a wider U.S.–Iran escalation, and equities continue to recover on renewed interest in the AI sector after the sell-off. Nonetheless, pressure on gold remains. Inflation worries tied to stubbornly high energy prices, combined with a broader sell-off in AI positions, pushed investors to sell gold to cover losses in other assets as tech shares fell. On Friday, gold slid to its lowest level since mid-July.

The Fed remains the main reference. Over the past month, rate-path expectations have shifted materially. Traders initially repriced an October hike after hot inflation prints, but officials' comments cooled those bets. The market now prices only about a 10% chance of a hike this week, though high energy prices still push the possibility of further tightening later in the year.

Remember: for non-yielding gold, expensive money is always a headwind. Many analysts argue the metal needs a clear floor because high oil keeps inflationary risks front and center, and the prospect of additional tightening weighs on price. They see gold at a critical juncture, with support that can evaporate quickly if it fails to find buyers below.

All this suggests gold remains in wait-and-see mode; its fate this week depends on the Fed's tone and oil. If the Fed holds rates and does not reinforce December-hike expectations, gold can probably hold around $4,000 and try to recover. But if Washington adopts harsher rhetoric or oil rises again, gold will likely struggle to avoid further losses.

Technical picture: buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $4,062 to aim for $4,124, above which a breakout will be difficult. A farther target is around $4,192. On the downside, bears will try to seize control of $4,000; if that happens, a range break would deal a serious blow to bulls and push gold toward $3,954, with a prospect of extending to $3,906.